The Impact of the Arab Awakening on Muslim Radicalization in Europe: A Preliminary Assessment

Implications of the events of the so-called Arab Awakening on violent radicalisation among European Muslim communities and, in particular, North African diaspora communities. While acknowledging that it is premature to draw any conclusions, it argues that while a small minority will still radicalise irrespective of the events taking place in the Arab world, the Arab Awakening has to some degree undermined al-Qaeda’s message and deprived jihadists of much of their propaganda ammunition against the West. It then proceeds to analyse how different cross-sections of the diverse Islamist milieus throughout Europe have been reacting to the events. It argues that while several European-based Islamist groups are seeking to spin the events to their advantage, there is little evidence of their efforts gaining much traction.