The goddess of love’s isle of hate

Legend has it that the mystical Aphrodite's Rock which juts out into the turquoise and jade waters of the Mediterranean, south-west of Limassol and east of Paphos, is the birthplace of the goddess of love.

Until 1974 Greek and Turkish Cypriot villages co-existed peacefully here side-by-side. What has become of the island of Cyprus and Aphrodite's legacy?

Cyprus has had the misfortune to be strategically important geographically. So it has suffered successive occupations over the centuries. The British were driven out in 1959, following a bitter civil war, but not before imposing on the island a constitution guaranteed by Greece, Turkey and Britain. In 1974, the Greek junta temporarily deposed Archibishop Makarios in a coup d'état, prompting Turkey to invade while the UK sat on its hands.

More than 30 years later, Cyprus is a member of the European Union but de facto divided, with EU laws not applying to the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which is recognised only by Turkey and protected by Turkish troops.

Two years ago the Annan Plan was brokered by the United Nations, accepted by the Turkish Cypriots but rejected by the Greek Cypriots. There has been no progress since, but there is at last a glimmer of hope that some progress can be made, following the first meeting on 26 June between Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos and the Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat.

In the light of the UN-sponsored negotiations, there would appear to remain five fundamental areas of disagreement: the Turkish settlers in the north, the right of return of the dispossessed to their original land, the confiscation of property, the guarantors of any settlement, and foreign troops remaining on the island.

Of these five issues, two should be relatively easily capable of settlement, two are essentially a question of money and a fifth involves the agreeing of a figure once the facts are known. Sounds easy? It is not, of course, at least until such time as the two communities recognise that together they must seek a common solution to a common problem; that, in current parlance, it can be a win-win and not a zero-sum game.

Today's and yesterday's political leaders spend most of their time playing the blame game and talking about the past. What a relief it would be to attend a conference about Cyprus at which the use of the past tense was banned.

Addressing each of the five problems in turn:

• On guarantors, the experience with the 1960 guarantors (Turkey, Greece and Britain) suggests that another solution is preferable. Any future settlement should be guaranteed by the European Union, NATO or the United Nations;

• On troops: such a guarantee should be supported by international peacekeepers and all Turkish and Greek troops should be withdrawn immediately;

• Right of return: sad as it is for those affected, it is unrealistic to imagine that all Turkish and Greek Cypriots can have the right to return home, but they must be entitled to compensation;

• Right to property: all property which is not returned to the rightful owners must be fully compensated;

• Settlers: the number of Turkish settlers in the north is disputed, but estimates range between 50,000 and more than 100,000 out of a total population of perhaps 200,000. First, there needs to be an independent, internationally backed census. Only then can the number of Turkish settlers who should be allowed to remain be agreed.

It is hard to see why new bilateral negotiations under the UN umbrella would succeed - whether at a political or technical level - when they have always failed in the past. Greek Cypriots do not trust Turkey and Turkish Cypriots do not trust Greek Cypriots. Confidence-building measures will not change that. The way through is to change the context by changing two provisions of the Annan Plan. The two communities should agree that the peace settlement be guaranteed by the EU, NATO or the UN and that their peacekeeping troops replace all Greek and Turkish troops on the island, immediately after the agreement is signed.

At the same time, a census should be commissioned by the UN on the population in the north; and a working party set up to study the solution to the right of return and property compensation.

The compensation required in relation to the right of return and property confiscation will be huge and most will need to be provided internationally. But then the cost of conflict is also huge. The EU should commission a study to estimate what the cost of maintaining 'non-Cyprus' - the cost of failing to resolve the conflict - might be.

• Stanley Crossick is founding chairman of the European Policy Centre. He writes here in a personal capacity. s.crossick@theepc.be

Legend has it that the mystical Aphrodite's Rock which juts out into the turquoise and jade waters of the Mediterranean, south-west of Limassol and east of Paphos, is the birthplace of the goddess of love.