The German elections. Left dilemmas

As the centre-right scents victory, bickering starts on the left

AS MANY as three parties are vying for the votes of left-leaning Germans on September 18th. That should offer enough choice to entice even habitual non-voters. Yet it is unlikely to bring the left victory. Most polls say that the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), with their partner, the Free Democrats (FDP), will beat the three left parties (the Social Democrats, or SPD, the Greens and the Left Party).

That is partly because the left is weak and divided. It is split among social democrats, leftish-liberals and socialists, partly thanks to its two periods of government since the war. In the 1970s, Chancellor Helmut Schmidt's refusal to accept the environment as an issue led to the formation of the Greens. Now Chancellor Gerhard Schroder's economic reforms have produced the Left Party, a blend of disaffected SPD members and ex-communists.

These defections have shrunk the SPD to a core. At this week's party congress, leaders insisted all was well. But in private some are giving up, and criticising Mr Schroder's campaign. Unless his televised debate with the CDU leader, Angela Merkel, on September 4th gives Mr Schroderan unexpected boost, the growls will get louder. In effect, debate over the post-Schroder era has begun. The SPD has two options: to move to the left, re-establishing its credentials as a people's party, or to stay the course set by Mr Schroder and hope for a “grand coalition” with the CDU.

The first option will be more likely if the SPD wins less than 30% of the vote. The more it gets above that figure, the better the chances of the second option. The argument will be fierce, not least because it is a clash between generations as well as between different shades of trade unionism. A grand coalition with the CDU could produce more defections to the Left Party and, maybe, a split in the unions.

The SPD's first offspring, the Greens, are not plagued by such infighting. But the party is not free of tension. Its leaders are pragmatic and professional, but the party base is more radical and left-leaning - which is why the Greens' election programme is leftish. There will be tussles for a dwindling number of top positions. If the Greens are not in the federal government, there will be no Green minister anywhere in Germany, even at state level.

The Greens' biggest challenge is to retain support even if they have little chance of power. Another coalition with the SPD is unlikely, at least at federal level. The time for an alliance with the CDU has not yet come (though there is a slim chance of one in Baden-Wurttemberg next March). Yet the Greens are not doomed, as some have suggested, even when Joschka Fischer, the popular foreign minister, eventually retires. Green voters have shown themselves surprisingly loyal, particularly in big cities. And the party has more capable politicians in the politically critical 40-55 age range than its rivals.

The fate of the Left Party is the hardest to predict. It had long been expected that the ex-communists of the east and a new party from the west might team up to reactivate two well-known politicians, Gregor Gysi and Oskar Lafontaine. The big surprise was how well the party did at first, exceeding 12% in early polls. Yet it has since dropped to around 8%, revealing the fragility of its support. Perhaps voters in eastern Germany, its stronghold, returned from holiday with less interest in a protest vote. Certainly many have a problem with Mr Lafontaine, a former SPD boss and noted bon vivant. Even his comrades criticised him for holidaying in a €3,000-a-week ($3,700) villa in Majorca.

Political tensions between the eastern and western branches of the Left Party are mounting. To smooth them over, the party staged a joint congress last week as a big east-west socialist love-fest. Mr Lafontaine went so far as to kiss a former communist from the east, Hans Modrow. Yet reactions to the Left Party's campaign poster tell a different story. Many interpret the sight of a beaming Mr Lafontaine towering over a fawning Mr Gysi as a symbol of the west's dominance over the east. Conversely, some idealistic western lefties worry that their job is merely to give ex-communists a foothold in their part of Germany.

All three left-of-centre parties are likely to remain a fixture in the political landscape. The question will then be whether they can come together to form a governing coalition - perhaps in 2009, if a government led by Ms Merkel fails to be re-elected. It is possible, and it is clearly what Mr Lafontaine and Mr Gysi want. Yet for such a coalition to be formed, the Left Party would have to be less populist, the SPD more left-wing and the Greens more social-democratic. Such big changes might have to await a new generation of politicians. It is hard to imagine the SPD's present leaders ever working with Mr Lafontaine, whom they see as a traitor.

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