The Future of Syria’s Economic Reforms between Regional Integration and Relations with the West

Following a cautious start, Syria had accelerated its economic reforms, and the politically most sensitive reforms could be launched in coming years. Economic reforms, however, remained subject to sudden interruptions, so their credibility required a strong external anchoring through financial support as well as regulatory mechanisms. However Syria was blocking its free-trade agreement with the EU, which could strongly anchor its economic reforms. Syria seemed to over-rely on regional agreements – in particular the free-trade agreement with Turkey – which, however, could not fully replace the role of the EU and the West in general. The deepening of Syria’s economic reforms and their growing social impact would increase the relevance of Western support. Western economic instruments would be a very important bargaining chip in the complex strategic game in the region. It was up to the United States and the EU to better tailor these instruments to the future evolution of Syrian economic reforms.