The French Socialists and Europe. A constitutional oui

Members of the Socialist Party vote for the EU constitution

IT WAS a vote that could have cost the leader his job, and split the party in two. In the event the decision by the members of France's Socialist Party to back the European Union constitution, by a convincing 59-41%, according to provisional results, has left the party's uncharismatic boss, Franois Hollande, stronger than ever. He is not the only one to breathe a sigh of relief. President Jacques Chirac now stands a much better chance of getting the favourable result he seeks in France's referendum on the EU constitution next year.

Mr Hollande had called the party's first-ever internal vote after his number two, Laurent Fabius, led a breakaway camp against the constitution. Officially, and to the bafflement of fellow European Socialists and British Conservatives alike, Mr Fabius believed that the text was too liberal economically and not social enough, and did too little to integrate Europe in areas such as tax harmonisation. It was time to return to the idea of a core Europe, he argued, and start again.

Unofficially, though, Mr Fabius's position was tactical. By the standards of the French left, he is a pro-European moderate, who voted for the 1992 Maastricht treaty on monetary union and was prime minister when France signed the Single European Act in 1986. Yet he detected a restless Euroscepticism on the left, prompted by fears of delocalisation - a loss of jobs to low-cost new EU members - and a sense that the Union of 25 was not working quite as the founding French intended. The 2002 presidential election, in which the Socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin, was evicted in the first round by the National Front's Jean-Marie Le Pen, had also exposed the perils of losing touch with popular leftish sentiment. In short, although this put him in an unholy alliance with harder-left elements, Mr Fabius was ready to gamble on a rejection. “To call it opportunism would be unkind,” comments a rival senior Socialist. “I would call it desperation.”

Both Mr Hollande and Mr Fabius insisted before the poll that this was not a personal vote of confidence. Mr Fabius said that “the leadership of the Socialist Party was not at stake”, so he would not resign as deputy leader. But his position has been weakened. Before his gamble, Mr Fabius was already losing ground. Despite an effort a year ago to spice up his image, his popularity rating is low (43%, according to Ifop, a pollster), compared with that of Mr Hollande (48%), and way behind those of popular heroes such as Bernard Kouchner (73%) or Jack Lang (67%). He has been overshadowed by Mr Hollande's steady ascent. Now he has been sidelined.

For his part, Mr Hollande has staved off a crisis in the party, and shored up his personal credibility. Just a year ago, he was regarded warily as a caretaker leader, lacking both force and personality. But he has since led the Socialists to sweeping victories at regional and European polls, as well as winning this week's referendum. A parade of Socialist heavyweights, from Jacques Delors to Mr Jospin, marched out to help him ahead of the ballot. For the first time, he looks a credible leader. But the weakening of Mr Fabius still gives a new twist to the left's favourite parlour game: who will be its 2007 presidential candidate? For example, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a pro-European rival to Mr Hollande, who was marginalised by the Hollande-Fabius duel, is now back in play.

The conflict over the EU constitution has been bruising. “There has been a lot of anger inside the party against Fabius,” says one insider. The Socialists badly need to unite, and to devise a programme for 2007. After Mr Hollande's victory, this is more likely to have a moderate flavour, which appeals to the centre, rather than leaning further to the left. The party would still find itself well to the left of Tony Blair's Labour Party, though: for instance, Mr Hollande defends the 35-hour week.

There is reassurance in this result for Mr Chirac too. Had the Socialists voted no, next year's referendum would have been extremely uncertain. The left is ahead of the ruling centre-right in the polls. And the French are hostile to Turkey's entry into the EU, a subject that has been hard to dissociate from the constitution. Indeed, Mr Chirac might have postponed the vote until late next year. With the Socialists now on board, he may instead bring it forward, possibly to next May. According to TNS Sofres, another pollster, 68% of the electorate supports the constitution.

Members of the French Socialist Party in France vote for the EU constitution in an internal party referendum, 1 December 2004.

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