The French Socialist Party. Of runners and riders

The Socialists remain divided and in disarray - and without a clear leader

WITH an unpopular Gaullist president and a sour French anti-capitalist mood, the Socialist Party ought to be confident. Instead, at last weekend's summer school in La Rochelle, party leaders queued up to declare their personal ambitions, leaving an impression of confusion and division - just what Francois Hollande, the party leader, wanted to avoid.

Unity “is our most precious asset”, declared Mr Hollande, urging his comrades to refrain from personal politics. His words went unheeded. One by one, top Socialists declared themselves candidates for the 2007 presidential election. Mr Hollande, if he is re-elected boss at a party congress in November, will be one. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a moderate ex-finance minister, said he would run - even if Lionel Jospin, a former prime minister, makes a comeback. Jack Lang, a popular ex-culture minister, said he was up for the job. So is Martine Aubry, mayor of Lille and architect of the 35-hour working week.

The problem with this “abundance of talent”, as Mr Hollande calls it, is its abundance of rivalry. These aspirants belong broadly to the same camp, close to Mr Hollande and in favour of the European Union constitution that voters rejected in May. Against them are the constitutional rejectionists, led by Laurent Fabius, another former prime minister. But this lot are divided too. Mr Fabius, a tax-cutting finance minister who now flirts with anti-globalisers and revolutionary communists, is distrusted by his fellow travellers.

At stake are not only the personal careers of a generation of top Socialists, but also the future direction of the French left. By most standards, France's Socialists remain unreconstructed. But those around Mr Hollande are modernisers, in favour of a “renovated socialism”. Some, such as Mr Strauss-Kahn, are less interventionist than others, such as Ms Aubry. But they share a pragmatic acceptance of market forces, after the 1983 U-turn away from the nationalisation and fiscal recklessness that began the Mitterrand presidency in 1981.

By contrast Mr Fabius, who as prime minister implemented many austerity measures at the time, now advocates a shift back to the left. The best alternative to the neo-Gaullist politics of President Jacques Chirac, he argues, is not a more moderate but a harder left. This week, he denounced those who favoured “a liaison between the left and centrism”, and called for a genuine left-wing alternative. Mr Fabius portrays himself as a realist, responding to the mood of the people. His detractors point to his naked opportunism and breathtaking party disloyalty.

In the short run, the balance of power between the two camps will be tested at a party congress in November, which will be like a mini-parliament. Mr Hollande and his allies are presenting a single motion, in the hope of scraping the majority that is needed to keep control of the party. If they succeed, they plan to designate a presidential candidate in late 2006. Under this scenario, Mr Hollande could stay as party head even if Mr Strauss-Kahn, say, became the official candidate.

Rival contenders for the party leadership have been unable to agree on a common motion. Mr Fabius's team will present one anyway - though the ex-prime minister has said that he does not want to be party head, hinting that he might cut a deal with a friend. But other motions are being prepared, for instance by Arnaud Montebourg and Vincent Peillon, two young radicals, as well as by Henri Emmanuelli, a left-wing firebrand. The last time Mr Fabius presented a motion, in 1990, he won 29% of members' votes. Unless he can do a deal with others, his adversaries say he would get half that now.

Most left-leaning voters are exasperated by the left's divisions. The prospect of the party tearing itself apart is even being raised. If Mr Fabius grabbed control, “Should we risk a split of the Socialist Party?” asked Bernard Kouchner, a popular former health minister and co-founder of Medecins Sans Frontieres. “Yes. The time for superficial reconciliation has passed.” He added that the party needs to “confront the pseudo-Marxists and their worn-out utopias.” But if two heavyweight rivals stand, the upshot could be failure all round. In the 2002 presidential election, even without a split in the party, the left paid a heavy price for its fragmentation: the far-right Jean-Marie Le Pen evicted Mr Jospin in the first round.

The Socialist Party in France remains divided and in disarray - and without a clean leader.

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