The Fate of Greece in a ‘Genuine Economic and Monetary Union’: Lessons from a small island state

Abstract:

As the Greek debt drama reaches another supposedly decision point, Daniel Gros urges creditors (and indeed all policy-makers) to think about the long term and poses one key question in this CEPS High-Level Brief: What can be gained by keeping Greece inside the euro area at “whatever it takes”?

As he points out, the US, with its unified politics and its federal fiscal transfer system, is often taken as a model for the Eurozone, and it is thus instructive to consider the longer-term performance of an area of the US which has for years been kept afloat by massive transfers, and which is now experiencing a public debt crisis. The entity in question is Puerto Rico, which is an integral part of the US in all relevant economic dimensions (currency, economic policy, etc.).

The dismal fiscal and economic performance of Puerto Rico carries two lessons:

1) Keeping Greece in the eurozone by increasing implicit subsidies in the form of debt forgiveness might create a low-growth equilibrium with increasing aid dependency.

2) It is wrong to assume that, further integration, including a fiscal and political union, would be sufficient to foster convergence, and prevent further problems of the type the EU is experiencing with Greece.

ESO: Background information: The Greek debt crisis: Key sources http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-greek-debt-crisis-key-sources/

ESO: Background information: Meeting: Eurogroup meeting, 18 June 2015 http://www.europeansources.info/record/meeting-eurogroup-meeting-luxembourg-18-june-2015/

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