The EU’s progress report on Turkey’s accession: derailment or shunted into a siding?

The European Commission’s damning report on Turkey’s progress in its accession negotiations sets the scene for a ‘train wreck’ if Ankara does not make sufficient headway by the middle of December when EU leaders hold their summit. The report, a wake-up call, voices ‘serious concern’ about freedom of expression, questions the independence of the country’s judiciary and says the military is not yet under full civilian control. Most seriously, for the immediate future, José Manuel Durão Barroso, the President of the Commission, said Ankara had a month to abide by its 2004 commitment, which allowed EU membership talks to start 13 months ago, and open Turkey’s ports and airports to Greek Cypriot ships or risk a suspension of some chapters of its negotiations. The negotiations are in fact already stalled as no new chapters have been opened since the first one (science and technology). The EU has also failed to meet its commitments: Brussels agreed to end the economic isolation of northern Cyprus, occupied by Turkey since its invasion in 1974, when Cyprus joined the Union in 2004. Since then, however, little has happened because Cyprus, with whom Turkey does not have diplomatic relations, always vetoes the move. There will be a great deal of brinkmanship in the coming weeks: the stakes are very high both for the EU and for Turkey, whose hopes of becoming the EU’s first mainly Muslim country are in jeopardy.