The EU treads a thin line in Kosovo

At the United Nations Security Council in New York, the EU and US are struggling to prevent Russia from vetoing Kosovo’s proposed independence from Serbia. But in the Balkans, diplomats are equally concerned about another threat: the disintegration of Kosovo.

On 3 April, the 15-member United Nations Security Council edged a step closer to deciding Kosovo’s final status. They began discussions on the Serbian province’s independence, supervised by the EU, as proposed by UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari.

EU and US diplomats are still asking themselves whether Russia will veto the proposals. Although Russian diplomats have not used the v-word they have expressed concern about Serbia’s territorial integrity about imposing a solution on Belgrade.

If Russia does exercise its veto, diplomats worry that Kosovo will declare independence unilaterally, raising the prospect of violence and leaving the EU hopelessly split. Tensions have been growing between one group of EU member states that would like to see quick independence for Kosovo and another, most notably Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovakia and Spain, that want to see a negotiated solution.

But in Kosovo’s capital Pristina, diplomats are equally concerned by the prospect of Kosovo’s fragmentation. Whether independence is brought thro-ugh a UN resolution, or done messily by a unilateral declaration, diplomats fear majority-Serb areas may attempt to secede from Kosovo.

The man at the forefront of preventing that from happening is Torbjörn Sohlström, the personal representative in Kosovo of Javier Solana, the EU’s foreign policy chief.

For 16 months, Sohlström has been preparing part of the EU mission that will oversee the activities of Kosovo’s government at independence. The so-called International Civilian Office will have the power to veto laws and sack ministers.

Last autumn, Sohlström was given the additional task of helping prepare the transfer of power from the UN mission in Kosovo (Unmik) to Kosovo’s own institutions.

"It is a double challenge," said Sohlstrom. "They will have to take on the functions and responsibilities that have been handled by Unmik over the past eight years…and [implement new rules on] centralisation, new security structures and other things that are outlined in the proposal."

Sohlström admitted that his new task would be vital to ensure Kosovo’s stability. "Unless this is properly prepared politically and practically [the situation] is going to be very difficult."

The EU hopes that drafting a new constitution will help avoid the nightmare scenario of the Serb-dominated northern Kosovo seceding, causing chaos in the Serb enclaves that dot the country and perhaps pushing the northern city of Mitrovica into civil conflict.

EU diplomats have been working to give ethnic Serbs a greater voice in preparing a new constitution to avoid just that scenario.

"In the status process, the interest of the Kosovo Serbs has been the big priority," said Sohlström. "More than two-thirds of the settlement proposal deals with provisions for the minority communities, particularly the Kosovo Serb community."

But the prospect of a Russian veto in New York has made engaging Kosovo’s Serbs more difficult. Serbian politicians, buoyed by Russia’s stance, have hardened their own opposition to Ahtisaari’s proposals. In turn they have also encouraged Kosovo’s Serbs to boycott the process.

"Many Kosovo Serbs are listening very much to what goes on in Belgrade. I think that is natural and think that is something that no one wants to change and something that is not going to change," said Sohlström. But he added that the two things were not exclusive. "You can listen a lot to Belgrade but you can also be close to Pristina."

Part of the diplomatic game now under way is to convince ethnic Serbs in Kosovo to take part on their own terms.

But in trying to convince Kosovo’s Serbs to integrate, the EU is keen not to grant them too large a voice for fear of repeating the mistakes of Bosnia - creating a Serbian state within a state, with a separate police force and political culture.

It is a delicate balance for Sohlström and his colleagues to strike and one that, ultimately, may be upset or stabilised by what is decided in New York.

At the United Nations Security Council in New York, the EU and US are struggling to prevent Russia from vetoing Kosovo’s proposed independence from Serbia. But in the Balkans, diplomats are equally concerned about another threat: the disintegration of Kosovo.