The EU, Russia and Ukraine: a double track with no end?

Abstract:

In March 2014, Russia took over the Crimean Peninsula by stealth. Having annexed it on 18 March, Russia made further forays in the eastern part of Ukraine, principally in Donetsk and Luhansk, where it provided secessionists with manpower and know-how, weapons (including heavy weapons), information technology and propaganda, as well as political support. Discarding the idea that territory or history alone can explain Russia’s grab, we assume that, besides increases in gas prices and demands for changes in the constitution while stoking unrest and violating borders, the Kremlin has resorted to war in eastern Ukraine as a means to exert pressure on the Kyiv government. What matters for Moscow is probably to prevent democracy from taking root in Ukraine, or in Western Ukraine for that matter. To the Kremlin, a failed state would be preferable to a democratic state, divided or not.

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