The end of politics in Armenia

On 5 March 2015 Gagik Tsarukian, one of the richest Armenian oligarchs and the founder and leader of Prosperous Armenia, the largest party outside the coalition government, announced that he was ceasing his political activity. Less than three weeks before, he had withdrawn from organising mass demonstrations which Prosperous Armenia - which itself was part of the establishment - had planned to hold together with opposition groups at the end of February with the intention of seizing power.

Tsarukian’s resignation was the result of blackmail by the ruling team; they revealed that he owed multi-billion debts to the treasury, and also threatened to deprive him of his parliamentary mandate.

In the short term, the quashing of Prosperous Armenia will strengthen the government camp, particularly President Serzh Sargsian. But in the long run – possibly before the parliamentary elections in 2017 and presidential elections in 2018 – it may contribute to the weakening of the government’s legitimacy, and threaten social and political stability.