The Economics of a Brexit

The article examines the possible options for the United Kingdom if it negotiated to leave the European Union.

The author concludes that the conventional task for economic analysis would be to assess the costs of an initial negative shock as trade barriers would be increased, followed by the gradual negotiation of a fresh set of bilateral free trade agreements over a transition period of many years. The less conventional task would be to assess the cost of years of strategic uncertainty, which the EU would be in no hurry to dispel. The claims by secessionists that the UK could get better and faster free trade deals with the rest of the world than the EU can is simplistic wishful thinking.

Intereconomics: Archive http://archive.intereconomics.eu/years/

Intereconomics: Anniversary Issue. 50 years of European integration http://50years.intereconomics.eu/50-years.html

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Background information: Alternatives to membership: possible models for the United Kingdom outside the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/policy-paper-alternatives-to-membership-possible-models-for-the-united-kingdom-outside-the-european-union/

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