The Economic Outlook after the UK Referendum: A First Assessment for the Euro Area and the EU

European Economy Institutional Papers are important reports and communications from the European Commission to the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament on the economy and economic developments.

The economic landscape had not changed much in the weeks after the spring forecast was published on 3 May 2016, but the results of the UK referendum held on 23 June 2016 modified the conditions for the way ahead. The ‘leave’ vote had resulted in financial market volatility, abrupt exchange rate changes, and a substantial increase in uncertainty that resulted in the deterioration of the growth outlook for the UK but also for the rest of the EU in 2016 and 2017. This is what this report explores.