The British problem and what it means for Europe

With the prospect of a referendum before 2017, a British Exit from the EU is a real possibility. In ‘The British problem and what it means for Europe’, ECFR director Mark Leonard argues that:

+ The risk of Brexit is not driven by a Eurosceptic public but by a Europhobic elite that has conflated immigration with Europe. Britain’s Europhobes have a powerful intellectual framework, wealthy backers, and advocates in the media, the House of Commons, and even the Cabinet. But the rise of UKIP seems to be scaring many people: support for EU membership is at a five-year high (a recent poll showed 45% wanting to stay in compared to 35% who wanted to leave).

+ An EU without Britain would be smaller, poorer, and less influential on the world stage. The UK makes up nearly 12.5% of the EU’s population, 14.8% of its economy, and 19.4% of its exports (excluding intra-EU trade). Furthermore, it runs a trade deficit of £28 billion, is home to around two million other EU citizens, and remains one of the largest net contributors to the EU budget (responsible for 12% of the budget in total).

There are a lot of opportunities for other EU countries to help stop Brexit by persuading the British government to support general reforms rather than special pleading. Leonard argues that European Reform can help to delink the two and drive a wedge between the agnostic public and the Europhobic elite.

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

Video: ECFR, 13.03.15: The British problem - View from the Capitals http://www.ecfr.eu/article/the_british_problem_and_what_it_means_for_europe_-_view_from_the_capitals31

ECFR: Tag: BREXIT http://www.ecfr.eu/archives/C357

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