The Baltics: Teething troubles

Date: 14/02/04

Little local difficulties in two Baltic countries

“WE'RE becoming the Italy of northern Europe,” grimaces Atis Lejins, director of the Latvian Institute for International Affairs. His country has just lost its 11th government since independence in 1991. Vaira Vike-Freiberga, the president, scathingly likens Latvian politics to a Mexican soap opera. After Einars Repse, the prime minister, fired Ainars Slesers, his deputy, last week, Mr Slesers's Latvia First party pulled out of the coalition, leaving it with a minority in parliament.

Commentators blame the split partly on Mr Repse's abrasive personality and partly on an anti-corruption drive that has made him popular with voters but less so with certain rich and influential figures. “He can be credited with cleaning things up, but that hasn't always meant putting working mechanisms in place,” says Peteris Vinkelis, deputy head of the Soros Foundation in Riga. Mr Repse himself has observed that the political system is inherently unstable.

In fact Latvia is doing worse than Italy, whose 11th government since 1989 is still (shakily) in place. But it is not unique in the post-Soviet world. It has caught up with Estonia (11 governments under seven prime ministers since 1990). Poland's government is the first in 15 years to have reached its second birthday. The reasons are many: too many small, young political parties, too many political-business ties dating to Soviet days, political systems in need of fine-tuning. Some think that a move from proportional representation to a constituency system would produce fewer, longer-lasting parties.

Collapsing coalitions are at least familiar stuff in Latvia. Lithuania's parliament is in uncharted political territory with its impeachment of President Rolandas Paksas. In December a parliamentary inquiry found that Mr Paksas had surrounded himself with friends and advisers linked to influence-peddling, organised crime and perhaps the Russian secret services. A final report from a committee of parliamentarians and lawyers has been delayed by a last-minute offer of a statement from Mr Paksas, rebutting the charges.

The longer this drags on (the constitutional court must have its say before parliament votes), the less hope Mr Paksas's opponents have of unseating him before Lithuania joins the European Union and NATO this summer. Foreign dignitaries are postponing visits to Vilnius. But Mr Paksas can hardly be kept away from a NATO summit in June that is meant to welcome new members. He is busily rallying supporters and planning his defence. Almost 20% of voters would choose him in a new presidential election, putting him just behind the front-runner, Lithuania's previous president, Valdus Adamkus. Being impeached may prove to have been the most popular thing Mr Paksas has done since being elected.

Features look at domestic political problems in Latvia and Lithuania.