The 2024 European Parliament Elections: Potential Outcome and Consequences

Summary:

The European Parliament elections in June 2024 are likely to produce a much more right-leaning assembly with 25 per cent of MEPs in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) groups. The centrist “super grand coalition” – European People’s Party (EPP), Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe (RE) – will still have a majority of seats. But a centre-left coalition (between S&D, RE, Greens/EFA, and the Left) is likely to fall below 50 per cent, and a “populist right coalition” (between EPP, ECR and ID, adding Fidesz MEPs) is only a few seats short of a majority for the first time.

To illustrate the significance of the elections, the paper discusses the current balance of power in the European Parliament, how coalitions have formed across different policy issues, and how voting cohesion of the political groups has also varied across policy issues. Changes in group and coalition sizes are likely to lead to different policy outcomes in the next term, particularly on environmental and migration issues. The first major test of the patterns of politics of the new Parliament will be the election of the Commission President.

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