Terrorist threat looms large over EU

By David Cronin

Date: 24/03/05

AL-QAEDA and affiliated groups regard attacks against civilians in EU countries as a priority, the Union's police office Europol has warned.

In an assessment of the terrorist threat facing Europe, The Hague-based body finds that, while al-Qaeda's capability has been "significantly degraded" since the 11 September 2001 atrocities in New York and Washington, "the group's aspiration to mount large terrorist attacks on the West remains".

According to Europol, the EU as an entity "might not be subject to a specific threat" from Islamic extremists but some of its member states are deemed 'legitimate' targets by groups such as al-Qaeda because of their involvement in Iraq or Afghanistan or, in the case of France, for banning girls from wearing Muslim headgear at school.

Italy is described as "particularly exposed" to a terrorist threat as cells of fundamentalist organisations already active in Afghanistan and Iraq have been found in some Italian regions. An added risk is that individuals not officially part of al-Qaeda could undertake unilateral attacks against perceived 'infidels'. This occurred, for example, in March last year when a suicide bombing occurred outside a McDonald's restaurant in Brescia.

The ongoing presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan remains a bugbear for terrorists, says Europol, warning that threats of an atrocity "could materialise at any time". In France, Europol refers to an increasing tendency for wealthy Moroccan students to be drawn to extremism. Their background is said to be similar to those of the Hamburg al-Qaeda cell, which planned the 11 September attacks.

Sergio Carrera from the Centre for European Policy Studies was not surprised by Europol's warning. The Madrid train bombings in March 2004 demonstrated al-Qaeda's determination to influence national politics, he noted, as it was instrumental in losing the general election for the former centre-right government. "But I definitely don't think we need to raise fears that a potential attack is going to happen every time a member state has an election," he added.

Europol's analysis covers the period from October 2003 to October last year. Aside from Islamic terrorism, it alludes to a 'Mediterranean triangle' of violent anarchist groups, mainly in Spain, Greece and Italy. One such group from Italy, the Federazione Anarchica Informale, is believed to have been behind a letter-bomb attack directed at Hans-Gert Pöttering, leader of the European People's Party grouping in the European Parliament, in early 2004. The group was among 11 placed on the EU's list of proscribed terrorist organisations earlier this month.

Europol reports that the Basque separatist group ETA has been hit hard by a wave of arrests of its members. But it is showing tendencies to expand beyond its traditional bases in Spain and France into Germany, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands and Belgium by "sending militants who would establish an infrastructure under cover of legitimate activities".

The threat assessment on Britain and Ireland was drafted before the €38 million Belfast bank heist in December and a subsequent pub murder. Both have been blamed on the Irish Republican Army (IRA). Europol believes some Republican dissidents have the ability to conduct "limited operations".

• EU and US authorities have been discussing the possibility of joint anti-terrorist missions to countries in the wider world, European Voice has learned. The missions would primarily focus on training law enforcement officials.

Europol, the European Union's police office, warned that al-Qaeda and affiliated groups regard attacks against civilians in EU countries as a priority. In an assessment of the terrorist threat facing Europe, The Hague-based body found that, while al-Qaeda's capability had been 'significantly degraded' since the 11 September 2001 atrocities in New York and Washington, 'the group's aspiration to mount large terrorist attacks on the West remains'.