Talks with Turkey offer best chance for democracy and a solution to Cyprus

Date: 12/12/02

By Dick Leonard

This week's crucial enlargement summit in Copenhagen offers the ideal opportunity for the Union to open the door to talks with Turkey. Current member states must grab the chance with both hands.

THERE is a story about an Irish Catholic and a Jew arriving at the gates of Heaven and complaining bitterly about the discrimination they had suffered on Earth.

"Never mind," said St Peter, "everybody's treated the same way in Heaven, and all you have to do to get in is to spell a simple word - God."

Soon after an Afro-American arrived with the same complaint. "Don't worry," said St Peter, "there's no discrimination in Heaven; all you have to do is to spell a simple word - chrysanthemum."

Turks could be forgiven for feeling that they have been treated in a similar way by the European Union. They first applied for membership in 1987, and since then they have been leapfrogged by no fewer than 15 later applicants - three of which were admitted in 1995, ten are about to be given the green light for 2004 and two others for 2007.

It says much for the determination of successive Turkish governments that - despite the negative vibes from Brussels - they have persisted with their application, and have been backed by impressive majorities in opinion polls.

Now, however, the waiting has to stop. Unless Turkey receives a clear invitation at the Copenhagen summit to begin negotiations on a fixed date, the consequences are likely to be appalling. It will be a severe setback for the emerging Turkish democracy and the EU will kiss goodbye to the best chance of a settlement of the Cyprus problem in the 28 years since the division of the island.

The situation has been transformed by the election of the moderate Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), and by the subsequent statesmanlike conduct of its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and of the new government headed by Abdullah Gul.

Before then there were perhaps only two or three EU governments, ironically led by Turkey's ancestral foe, Greece, that were in favour of encouraging the Turkish application, and that only to the extent of offering Turkey "a date for a date".

That is, a highly provisional promise that a firm date for negotiations might be signalled on a subsequent occasion if specific conditions had been met in the interim.

Over the past month, however, and only partly because of pressure from President George W. Bush (who significantly invited Erdogan to visit Washington on the eve of the Copenhagen summit), more and more governments have become convinced that it is now or never.

Two of the last governments to be persuaded were those of France and Germany, but last week at a meeting in Berlin, President Jacques Chirac and Chancellor Gerhard Schröder agreed on a date for membership negotiations to start - reportedly 1 July 2005.

Some other governments want it to be earlier - 1 June 2004, a month after the entry of the ten new members - has been suggested. Other commentators have suggested waiting until 2007-08. By early this week only three member states - Austria, Luxembourg and the Netherlands - were still resisting pressure to name the day.

It is unlikely that they will be able to stand out against the determination of the other 12 governments to move forward.

Whatever date is chosen, it will be "firm" only on paper. If Turkey were to renege on its new undertakings to stamp out torture, guarantee human rights and the use of non-Turkish languages (notably Kurdish) in education and broadcasting it will discover soon enough that the offer is, in fact, conditional.

Not the least of the conditions will be active Turkish participation in a Cyprus settlement, a fact well-recognised by Erdogan, who is putting immense pressure on Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash to submit to Kofi Annan's proposals. The Turks are pressing Denktash - despite his recent surgery - to travel to Copenhagen to sign an agreement with Greek Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides.

If the UN Cyprus plan is not agreed - whether or not Turkey is to blame - it will inevitably be a major blow to its own membership hopes. At the very least, it will further delay what is bound to prove a long and difficult negotiating process.

Nor will the strong opponents of Turkish membership within the EU - of whom Valéry Giscard d'Estaing is merely one of a large number - be easily disarmed. Their complaints can be summarised under three headings: Turkey is not European, is too big and too Muslim.

The point about Turkey's European status might have carried weight, but it long ago ceased to apply. Despite the fact that the bulk both of its population and its area are in Asia, Turkey was recognised as a European state as long ago as 1963 when - together with Greece - it signed the first association agreement with the European Community.

It had already been accepted as a member of the Council of Europe in 1949, became a European member of NATO in 1952, signed a customs union with the EU in 1996 and was recognised as a valid candidate for membership by the Helsinki summit in 1999. The EU might still turn Turkey down if it cannot meet the conditions of membership, but it can't, in good faith, reject it because it is non-European.

Nor is mere size a respectable reason for applying a block.

It is true that - on current demographic trends - it would probably become the most populous member state by 2025, but it would only be marginally larger than Germany, and in no sense would it become a dominating force within the Union comparable to the US in NATO, or even Russia (whose population is twice as large) might be if it were eventually to join the Union. At most its population would be no more than one-sixth of the total, and its share of GDP a great deal less.

Which leaves the question of religion. The EU already has 15 million Muslim citizens, while two other potential member states - Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina - have Muslim majorities. The idea that the EU has a particularly Christian vocation cannot - and should not - be sustained.

Like all other candidate members past and present, Turkey must be judged strictly on the criteria for membership laid down years ago by an earlier Copenhagen summit, in 1993. Only if she clearly fails to meet them would it be justifiable to keep her out.

Author says the crucial enlargement summit in Copenhagen, 12-13 December 2002, offers the ideal opportunity for the European Union to open the door to talks with Turkey. Current Member States must grab the chance with both hands.