Taiwanese referendum increases diplomatic temperature with EU

Date: 29/01/04

TAIWAN? It's the last thing George W. Bush needed. The leader of the free world has enough on his plate finding villains in Iraq and Afghanistan

Over here in the EU, even if we had a proper foreign policy, we would be a tad preoccupied with opening the doors to ten new member states, arguing about a new constitution, Iraq and parliamentary elections.

Nevertheless, on 20 March the little island of Taiwan will host a dramatic double bill: a presidential election and controversial referendum on the same day, a move that has raised diplomatic tensions between Beijing, Washington and Brussels.

President Chen Shui-bian, of the liberal-leaning Democratic People's Party is vying for re-election on a reformist ticket - bidding to finish the work he began in 2000 when he ousted nationalist party (KMT) then-leader Lee Teng-hui. The election campaign has been full of the usual dirty tricks and bad-mouthing associated with democracies the world over. But Chen lit the touch-paper when he a 'peace referendum' on the threat posed by the mainland People's Republic of China (PRC) to Taiwan, more than 50 years after the breakaway Republic of China (as Taiwan is also known) was established.

Many see Chen's referendum, to ask citizens what they think about the 500 missiles China has pointed at them, as an electioneering gimmick. President Chen wants approval for buying anti-missile missiles, should his citizens perceive a threat from the mainland.

Political scientists reckon an emotive question on national security could have positive spin-offs for Chen, who only won in 2000 thanks to a temporary split in the KMT. But with the former ruling party now unified, Chen needs all the votes he can get.

But others, including French President Jacques Chirac, fear that Chen's move could provoke China, and threatens the military and political status quo that now endures between the two sides. Chirac termed Taiwan's decision to hold a referendum "aggressive" during a joint press conference on Tuesday (27 January) with the PRC President Hu Jintao, who is on a state visit to France.

But it is not hard to see why the Taiwanese feel threatened by their massive neighbour.

At the 1996 elections, with independence rhetoric in the air, China fired off a salvo of missiles into the Taiwan Straits.

Of course, with the world's eyes on Taiwan and China, that is unlikely to happen this time - though perhaps you ought to go somewhere else for your holidays in March.

And the Taiwan Straits is not exactly the Bay of Pigs: the world is not on the brink of nuclear war, at least not just yet.

Before he announced the wording of the referendum on 16 January, Chen sent a delegation of top advisors across the world in an attempt to assuage fears that the plebiscite is a thinly disguised vote for independence, certain to provoke China.

However, the Americans and the Japanese refused to welcome this delegation, wishing to stay out of the whole messy affair.

European Voice met Parris H. Chang, a key advisor to President Chen, and chairman of the committee on foreign relations in the Taiwanese parliament, during a whirlwind trip to European capitals, including Brussels. Chang, who met with European Ccommission officials, MEPs, and diplomats during a brief stopover in the Belgian capital, made no excuses for the plebiscite.

"We have said that this referendum is an expression of our population's will. This is the first time in Taiwanese history that we were able to have people vote on an issue as a nation. Before November it was not possible to have referenda like in Europe.

"The issue is Taiwan's security. China has 500 missiles pointing at Taiwan. It is a very obvious and clear danger. We would like our people to express their view on this rather absurd and abhorrent situation by calling for China to withdraw them and not use force against Taiwan. We want the international community to take note."

If you don't believe Chang about the military threat, he suggests reading a report written by the Pentagon, which he claims, states quite clearly the Chinese intention is to "use force to conquer Taiwan".

Chang is clearly angry with what he perceives as hypocrisy stemming from EU leaders, such as Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder who, in a recent trip to China, advocated the reopening of arms sales to the country.

"They want to sell things to China. But it is ironic that they criticize the peace referendum because they say it could raise tensions, yet they advocate selling arms to China," claims Chang, a former professor in political science at Pennsylvania State University.

The European Parliament voted resoundingly against lifting the moratorium on Chinese arms sales last year.

However, Chris Patten, the external relations commissioner, signalled to the assembly's foreign afffairs committee on Tuesday that he also favoured lifting the embargo, notwithstanding continued concerns over the PRC's human rights record.

Chang acknowledges that some MEPs, along with Commission officials, have voiced their concerns about rocking the status quo and the shift towards independence - something he insists the referendum is not designed to do: "We certainly find some MEPs who used to belong to communist parties who are more in league with China. But we try to qualify this misinformation. We do not try to change the status quo. It is China that wants to change the status quo by forcing Taiwan to capitulate."

To drill home the point, he insists Taiwan cannot be accused of upsetting the status quo by possibly stationing defensive missiles. "It is like putting on a bullet proof vest and them saying 'you are provoking me'.

Whether or not more missiles in the region is a good or bad thing rather depends on one's opinion of the Cold War. But the EU, which once looked down the barrel of a gun at many of its new members, can at least point to some encouraging parallels in its own recent history.

If China ever becomes as good at democracy as it is at making things, then the US navy might just be able to sail away.

Until then, the Taiwan Straits will remain one of the world's potential flashpoints.

Relations between Taiwan and the United States and European Union are being strained by the Taiwanese President's decision to hold both a presidential election and controversial 'peace referendum' on the same day, 20 March 2004. The referendum concerns the threat posed to Taiwan by China - the Taiwanese President wants approval to buy anti-missile missiles should his citizens perceive a threat from the mainland. Some western leaders fear the referendum will raise tensions with China.

http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations/taiwan/intro/index.htm http://ec.europa.eu/comm/external_relations/taiwan/intro/index.htm

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