Speed of accession hangs on Polish election results

Date: 18/09/1997

By Mark Turner

AS POLISH politicians enter the final straight of their general election campaign, one thing unites their otherwise feuding parties.

None of the major contenders dare give EU and NATO membership anything other than pride of place in their manifesto.

“To do anything else would be political suicide,” said one official at Poland's mission to the European Union. “Recent opinion polls suggest that eight out of ten Poles support joining the EU.”

But the key question is to what degree this broad-brush support is hiding deeper splits that will emerge once the election is over.

At present, the parliament is ruled by the ex-Communist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), with support from the Polish Peasant Party (PSL). Pro-reform Prime Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoscewicz is strongly in favour of early Union membership.

His major electoral opponent is Marian Krzaklewski's Solidarity Election Action (AWS), formed two years ago to unite the fractured centre and right-wing opposition to the SLD. AWS agrees that the EU is crucial to Poland's survival, but has in the past warned against leaping into things too quickly.

But whichever of the main parties wins, it will need to find at least one or two partners to attain a parliamentary majority.

This is where Leszek Balcerowicz' pro-market Union for Freedom (UW), Jan Olszewski's nationalist Movement for the Reconstruction of Poland (ROP) and the traditionally conservative Peasant Party come into the picture.

Were either of the major contenders to ally with the UW, the chances are that they would continue to pursue market reforms and European integration. But should the ROP find itself in the power-broking position alongside the AWS, Olszewski's Euroscepticism might become a major factor in Polish politics. A strong Peasant Party would naturally drag its feet over EU membership if it threatened agricultural jobs.

Adding to the political mix is the country's influential and highly conservative church, loosely allied with the AWS.

Although the Church has so far distanced itself from the elections, some of its more radical bishops have in the past described the Union as a tool of the devil and urged Poles to reject its rampant consumerism.

Once the election is over and EU accession negotiations start, their voice may become considerably louder.

This is certainly not to say that a right-wing landslide would scupper Poland's Union bid. Whoever wins the election, the country will continue pushing for membership and will, in all probability, succeed.

But if the right wing assumes command, it could well call for longer transition periods and tougher guarantees before adopting the EU acquis. If that is the case, Poland's accession negotiations could go on for a very long time.