Spain and the Basques: Here’s a road map – maybe, perhaps

Date: 16/08/03

A leaked plan has put the separatist cat among the centralist pigeons

“THE possibility of this succeeding is zero.” Thus Spain's prime minister, José María Aznar, on the latest plan of the Basque regional premier, Juan José Ibarretxe, to turn his region - now merely one of Spain's 17, though with more autonomy than most - into a “free state associated with Spain”. Mr Ibarretxe's idea is not new, but he had hoped to keep his latest version of it under wraps until he had reached a consensus with his allies in the regional assembly. But a conservative newspaper, ABC, got hold of a draft and Mr Aznar reached for the big stick.

The plan envisages the Basque region “sharing sovereignty” with Spain. But its economy and judiciary, among other important matters, would come entirely under Basque control. And, above all, the region's voters would have the right to decide their own future, including the option of independence, in a referendum.

Mr Ibarretxe, whose Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) has ruled the region, in one coalition or another, for the past 25 years, plans - once he has squared its current allies in the regional assembly (a local party that split from his own, and the ex-communist United Left) - to ask the assembly to amend the region's constitution, known as “the statute of Guernica”. That done, the result would be put to the Spanish parliament, and then to a Basque referendum.

The whole idea is one step from treason, in Mr Aznar's eyes. “The aims of nationalism [ie, the PNV] and of terrorism [the separatist gunmen of ETA] are identical,” he says, and the plan is “utterly incompatible with the [Spanish] constitution”. The state prosecutor, Jess Cardenal, likened the plan to something from Asterix and Obelix, the Gaulish defiers of imperial Rome in France's favourite comic books.

As for practicalities, José Mara Michavila, the justice minister, says the Constitutional Court would annul any such alteration to the Basque constitution; nor is there any chance that the Spanish parliament would agree. That is true: not only does Mr Aznar's conservative People's Party (PP) now - and quite possibly after the general election early next year - have a majority, but the Socialists too would say no. They say they favour real regional autonomy everywhere (translation: especially in Catalonia, where they hope to win regional power this autumn); but the PNV plan is another matter.

Exactly what Mr Ibarretxe is really after is unclear. More autonomy, certainly. But full independence, who knows? He said the leaked plan was one of eight drafts, and that he would unveil his final version only next month. For all its decades of power, the PNV has never been crystal-clear about its long-term aim. Its historic leader, Xabier Arzalluz, the party president, certainly dreams of independence, and, though now 70, he still has considerable influence. But those who have to run the region, and its relations with Madrid, have to live with the world as it is.

Indeed, the PNV is decried by more committed (and more left-wing) Basque nationalists as the vehicle of a self-serving Catholic Basque establishment that has no real intention of altering the status quo. ETA says the plan does not go far enough, since it does not argue bluntly for outright independence, nor make a claim, as ETA does, to a wider Basque country including the neighbouring Spanish region of Navarre and bits of south-west France.

Since his draft plan was leaked in ABC, Mr Ibarretxe has tried to play down its most controversial aspects. “It has been turned into a phoney debate by people who want to present our proposal as secessionist,” he said. He pointedly refused to talk of a “free state associated with Spain”, preferring to use the less drastic phrase “a free associated community”. He says he wants peaceful co-existence: “This is the key year for Spanish and Basque politics, when we must decide on the model of the relationship between the Basque region and Spain for the next 20 years.”

Many Basques think Mr Ibarretxe is going too far. His government's own sociological unit published a survey last month suggesting that only 22% definitely favour independence, 33% say it depends on the conditions, and 32% are against. But 89% supposedly favour the idea of a referendum to decide whether the region should have a new status, and 42% said they thought Mr Ibarretxe's plan would help.

Oddly, however, three out of four of the survey's respondents said they had never heard of the plan - and felt no wish to know more about it.