Spain and its regions. Let’s all pull together

Date: 17/06/06

After the Catalans, Basques and Andalusians want autonomy too

WILL Catalans turn out to vote, or will they head for the beach? After months of debate over a new charter of autonomy, many may choose the latter when it is put to a referendum on June 18th. Yet there is no doubt about the result: the charter will sail through. Only the conservative People's Party, harder-line separatists and a handful of anti-nationalist intellectuals are against.

Spain's Socialist prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, should emerge smiling. The People's Party predicts the disintegration of Spain after a "yes" vote. But Josep Duran i Lleida, spokesman of the moderate Catalan nationalist Convergence and Union coalition, which backs the charter, retorts that "there is no danger of Spain falling apart, nor is this a first step towards independence." Indeed, separatists complain that the charter is too weak--they wanted Catalonia formally recognised as a "nation". Other critics fret over a new duty for people to understand Catalan, which will now be obligatory for most public-sector jobs. Another complaint is that what is billed as Catalonia's "constitution" is so long. With 227 detailed articles, running to 57 pages, it rivals the European Union's failed constitution.

But the new charter's biggest impact may be beyond Catalonia. This is only the start of a round of revising the charters of most of Spain's 17 autonomous regions. Catalonia has raised the bar. Other regions, which got fewer powers when the Spanish constitution was adopted in 1978, hope to catch up. Andalusia wants to be recognised as having a "national reality". But in truth, nobody wants to be left behind.

That will affect most notably the Basques, who currently enjoy even more powers than the Catalans. It is hard to predict the effects of a Catalan yes on the slow-moving peace process in the Basque country. Basque nationalists, including erstwhile ETA terrorists, could take the Catalan route of negotiations with Madrid. In the past, however, the dynamic of Spanish regionalism has required that, whatever others have, Basques and Catalans should have more. So Basque nationalists, seeing Andalusians hard on their heels, may demand a lot more. But a right to self-determination has already been ruled out by Mr Zapatero. And if the People's Party is angry about the Catalan charter, it is even more hostile to negotiations with ETA.

This will limit Mr Zapatero's room for manoeuvre with the Basques. Unlike peacemakers in Northern Ireland in the 1990s, he will not have bipartisan support from his main opposition party. That may, however, produce an unintended pay-off, in the form of a political "good cop, bad cop" scenario. ETA's choice may be to deal now with the good cop Zapatero--or to suffer, at some point in the future, from the intransigence of a bad cop People's Party.

A Catalan "yes" will remind Basques of the work they still have to do, but it should at least allow Catalans to relax. The new charter ought to last for a couple of decades, at least. "We won't be able to go back to it during our political lifetime," says Mr Duran i Lleida.