Spain and its Basques. No truck with terrorism

Date: 08/02/03

The central government is determined to smash ETA by war, not jaw

“Everything to do with the banning [of Batasuna] is aimed at taking away the vote from so many thousands of people who have a legitimate political choice. They can count on our moral support.” That was the pledge last weekend to the supporters of ETA's now-banned political wing from Xabier Arzalluz, leader of the non-violent Basque Nationalist Party (PNV). To many it sounded like an appeal for votes. To Spain's prime minister, José María Aznar, it confirmed his conviction that Mr Arzalluz and his party are hand-in-glove with ETA's gunmen. With views so wide apart, can the central government ever reach agreement on the future of the Basque region with the PNV government that runs it? And does Mr Aznar have any long-term policy for it other than smashing ETA and demonising the PNV?

The short answer to both questions is most probably no. Local elections, the first since Batasuna was banned last summer, are due in the region in May. The PNV regional premier, Juan José Ibarretxe, has said that this year he will put his plan for a referendum on whether the region should become a “free state associated with Spain” (and perhaps sharing the Spanish king) to the Basque assembly. He claims this would lead to an ETA ceasefire and the prize of greater autonomy. Mr Aznar sees the idea as a threat to Spain's territorial integrity and a sop to ETA.

Yet for all the climate of fear created by the terrorists, for the past month the steep green hills and narrow industrialised valleys of the Basque country have been free of ETA's bombs and bullets. The last murder was in December, when a police officer trying to spot-check a car that was, in fact, carrying explosives to Madrid, was shot dead. French and Spanish police, who last year arrested about 190 real or alleged etarras, 60 of them in France, have grabbed another dozen more this year. Politicians are yet again speculating, albeit cautiously, on the prospect of eliminating ETA.

That is unlikely: the serpent's head has proved itself in the past capable of quick regrowth. Mr Aznar, pledged to step down early next year, is determined to try to cut it off for good. After the breakdown of a 14-month ceasefire in 1998-99, he ruled out any further attempts at dialogue with ETA. Many doubt that his iron-fisted policy can resolve the long-term Basque problem, but it is popular in a country that has grown sick of ETA's violence.

He is backing tough police action with tougher laws: a new one has just raised the minimum prison term for ETA terrorists from 30 to 40 years. And in a further show of determination, Mr Aznar recently said he would stand as a councillor for his People's Party's in the Basque city of Bilbao. It's a gesture, he admits, “a symbol of solidarity” with local councillors who work under threat of death, as indeed they do. But, he said, he wants to show that the region must become like any other part of Spain. Just as Mr Arzalluz's firebrand nationalism reflects the Basque experience of oppression under General Franco, Mr Aznar to some extent reflects the old right wing that believed zealously in the integrity of a Catholic Spain and the use of mano dura, the firm hand, to ensure it.

On the political front, some form of protest from the banned Batasuna is likely before the local elections. A new radical Basque-nationalist political formation is to be unveiled on February 16th, though no one knows whether it intends to compete in the elections But Mr Aznar said last week that he feared the PNV more than ex-Batasuna. He suspects it may try some shock tactic, spurred both by the hope of mopping up ex-Batasuna votes and by the failure of Mr Ibarretxe's efforts to sell his idea of “association” with Spain to the region's thoroughly sceptical businessmen (and indeed even in a tour abroad).

Mr Aznar must hope that, even after its likely successes in the local elections, the PNV will not dare to call for a referendum on its association idea. But if its does? As with the rest of the prime minister's uncompromising Basque policy, says a former aide, “there is no plan B.”