Small and large friends of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism: Which non-EU countries are likely to support it?

The carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) of the European Union (EU) may become a significant global climate policy milestone. The EU trade partners most willing to accept CBAM could help it gain the critical mass necessary for survival and broader adoption. The cooperation of the world's major economies would be particularly important, while major recipients of EU development aid may be most likely to fall into line. The stances of countries will depend on their climate outlook and how CBAM affects them.

This paper assesses which countries are likely to be most accepting the EU's CBAM by constructing an index with the following dimensions: export structure, national carbon policy, innovation capacity, trade agreements with the EU, and the carbon intensity of their economies. The CBAM Support Index is applied to three different groups of countries to identify a variety of possible allies.