Slovakia: Scandalous

Date: 27/03/04

The disturbing popularity of Vladimir Meciar

SLOVAKS see their presidential election on April 3rd as a dull affair. But to outsiders it verges on the shocking. The front-runner is Vladimir Meciar, a former prime minister widely seen as a bad hat who engineered his country's break-up with the Czech Republic in 1993, let cronyism hijack the economy, and flouted democratic norms with such abandon that neither the European Union nor NATO would even talk of letting Slovakia in. He will probably lose, because his opponents will unite against him; and the job is mainly ceremonial. But why do so many Slovaks want Mr Meciar back, even as a figurehead, when their country is at last joining NATO (next week) and the EU (on May 1st)?

The idea seems more incongruous given that Slovakia's centre-right government, which ousted Mr Meciar six years ago and was re-elected in 2002, is praised across Europe for its economic reforms. Although defections have cost it an assured parliamentary majority, it has brought in a 19% flat tax for profits and incomes, a flexible labour code and American-style welfare reforms. For public pensions, new personal accounts run by private companies come in January. Health and education are next. The reforms are working, despite unrest among poor Roma (gypsies) in eastern Slovakia. Foreign investment is pouring in; unemployment is falling.

But Slovakia has lots of poor people who feel that reforms have brought more pain than gain. Many back Mr Meciar, as do nationalists. He courts centrists by portraying himself as a committed European, though he was far from that when in power. The presidency would give him a graceful exit from parliament, where he has lost ground to a younger populist, Robert Fico, founder of a left-leaning opposition party called Smer. Mr Fico is rated as Slovakia's most trusted politician, with Mr Meciar second. The prime minister, Mikulas Dzurinda, comes miles behind.

Mr Fico is sitting out the presidential race, because he wants the job of prime minister. That leaves the incumbent president, Rudolf Schuster, a veteran ex-communist, as Mr Meciar's main rival on the left, in a field of 11. Mr Schuster beat Mr Meciar in the 1999 presidential election, but his star has since faded. The main centre-right contender is Eduard Kukan, the foreign minister. Nobody is likely to win outright in the first round, forcing a run-off between the top two. Mr Kukan would probably win against either rival. But a run-off that pitted Mr Meciar against Mr Schuster could go either way.

Voters are also being asked if they want an early parliamentary election, before the due date of 2006, in a non-binding referendum demanded by trade unions. A strong yes vote would encourage Mr Fico; so should the presidential election, whatever its result. Mr Meciar will be weakened if he loses; if he wins, he will be out of parliament. Either event will bring closer Mr Fico's goal of wresting power from Mr Dzurinda's government, without sharing it with Mr Meciar or anyone else.