Settling Cyprus. What a waste

Date: 15/03/03

The collapse of talks to reunite the island marks a stupidly missed opportunity

OVER the years it has been hard to apportion blame for the failure of the divided island's Greek and Turkish leaders to strike a deal to give their people security and prosperity in a loosely federal but reunited Cyprus. Recently, under the blandishments of the United Nations and the European Union, they had come within finger-touching distance of a settlement. All the sadder, then, that this week the Turkish-Cypriots' truculent leader, Rauf Denktash, rejected the UN's sensible proposals for a deal. The government in mainland Turkey must also share blame by failing to bludgeon Mr Denktash into accepting the plan. A further gloomy outcome is that, while the island's Greek-run part will almost certainly join the EU on its own next year and the Turkish part will fester in isolation and poverty, mainland Turkey's own hopes of starting negotiations to join the Union have been dented too.

Both of the island's communities had a lot to gain. The Turks would have given back control of around 8% of the island's territory to the Greeks - a substantial chunk of the land taken in 1974 when the Turkish army intervened after a short-lived Greek-Cypriot coup on the island. The Turks, 18% of the population before the invasion, have since held 37% of the land. The Greek-Cypriots' new president, Tassos Papadopoulos, at first complained that the latest UN compromise did not adequately address his people's grievances. But he wisely accepted it. This time it is overwhelmingly Mr Denktash's fault that a settlement has been blocked.

Indeed, the Turks had even more to gain than the Greeks. They would have kept a vast amount of autonomy in their still disproportionately large zone. They would have enjoyed an influx of EU cash had the whole island been joining the Union next year, not to mention the rapid lifting of sanctions long imposed by the EU against their breakaway statelet.

The Turkish government may have been too preoccupied by the political wrangling and tortuous diplomacy over Iraq. Many of Turkey's still-too-influential generals see the Turkish-run bit of Cyprus as a strategic asset, while some Turkish politicians regard the island as a bargaining chip in Turkey's quest to join the EU. They are wrong. Turkey's failure to persuade Mr Denktash to say yes to compromise will make it much harder for the EU to smile on its application, due for consideration at the end of next year, to start negotiations to join. Many governments are already queasy about the idea of Turkey as a fellow Euro-club member,

What next?

The UN's secretary-general, Kofi Annan, had suggested a ruse to force Mr Denktash's hand and to strengthen that of the Greek-Cypriots' leader by holding a referendum on the proposals next month - on both sides of the island. Both communities would probably have said yes. But Mr Denktash wrecked that idea too. If stalemate prevails, as seems likely, Mr Annan says he will abandon all further efforts to settle Cyprus during his time as UN boss. It would then be up to the EU to reopen proceedings. By the end of this year the Turkish-Cypriots are due for a general election. Mr Denktash's opponents on his own side of the island, who approved of Mr Annan's plan, may well take power in parliament but the presidential term has a few years yet to run. One day, perhaps mercifully soon, the ailing Mr Denktash will go. Then, maybe, a fair deal can at last be done. But a golden chance has been stupidly wasted.

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