Russia’s presidential election: Forward, March

Date: 31/01/04

As the opposition wrings its hands, Vladimir Putin's re-election looks inevitable; but, even for him, not everything will be simple thereafter

VOLODYA, Vova (jocularly); Vovka, Vovochka (lovingly); Vovik, Vovchik (irreverently); Vladimir Vladimirovich (respectfully); or just plain VVP (enigmatically): whatever they call him, there is no mistaking whom Russians are talking about. Vladimir Putin's will be the only name worth knowing in the March 14th presidential election, for which the registration of candidates closed this week. Even the other Vladimir-Zhirinovsky, the ultra-nationalist buffoon who has been a staple of Russian politics for over a decade - has decided not to run. So has Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communists. A poll this week by VTSIOM-A found that Mr Putin would get 79% of the vote if the election were held today. His nearest rival, Sergei Glazyev, an ex-Communist now leading the Kremlin - created Motherland Party, would get 4%.

As the campaign begins, other candidates' ratings will rise - assuming their registrations are accepted, after a frantic drive to amass the 2m signatures needed. Mr Putin's only serious opponent may be Irina Khakamada of the Union of Right Forces (SPS). But even she can probably hope only for high single figures. At a congress on January 24th, convened to analyse its crushing defeat in December's parliamentary elections, the party voted not to support her candidacy. Many lambasted her decision to run, saying that it lends the election ill-deserved credibility. Some accused her of being in the Kremlin's pay, a notion she has somewhat dispelled with acid remarks about Mr Putin.

The opposition has been in turmoil ever since the December election. Both SPS and Yabloko, the other standard-bearer of liberal values, fell short of the 5% threshold for automatic Duma representation. Yabloko remains under the thumb of its long-time leader, Grigory Yavlinsky, who also decided not to run for president this time. But SPS is split. Boris Nemtsov, a former co-chairman (all the top leaders formally resigned after the Duma defeat), backs Mrs Khakamada, arguing that the party lost voters because it agreed too often with the government, and that it needs now to “define itself as an opposition to Putin in all respects.” Another wing, led by Anatoly Chubais, head of the state electricity monopoly, still believes more in exerting influence from within.

Which side comes out ahead, and who leads SPS, will depend partly on how well Mrs Khakamada does. Some in the party even hope for a third option: that Mikhail Kasyanov, the prime minister, who is widely expected to lose his job after March, may take the reins and give the party a much-needed boost. They point to Ukraine, where Viktor Yushchenko, a former prime minister under President Leonid Kuchma, is now the opposition's leading light and its main presidential hope.

Either way, a serious presidential challenger from outside the pro-Kremlin circle may not emerge for quite a few years. And Mr Putin's power during his next (and, barring constitutional changes, final) term will be close to absolute. United Russia, the main pro-Kremlin party, has two-thirds of the Duma deputies, among them a raft of “independents” who joined it after the election. It controls all 29 Duma committees. The upper house, the Federation Council, already virtually a rubber stamp, became even more of one after its speaker, Sergei Mironov, a close ally of Mr Putin's, forced the resignation of his deputy and main rival.

Those who obsessively follow Kremlin minutiae see hints that Mr Putin is cracking down within his inner circle too. Mr Kasyanov has toned down previous criticism of the legal hounding of Yukos, Russia's biggest oil company, and now seems less enthusiastic than he was about reforming the state's gas monopoly, Gazprom. It looks as if he is trying to save his job - and as if Kremlin rivals, enemies of the business elite, are in the ascendant. As further evidence, prosecutors have issued arrest warrants for several more Yukos shareholders and begun investigating how parts of it were privatised. Somebody else under threat, after the defence ministry launched a salvo against the military top brass, is Anatoly Kvashnin, chief of the general staff. His departure could bring forward a much-delayed military reform.

But watch for April showers

And yet Mr Putin's road is not completely smooth. First, he has to deal with infighting in his circle. If Mr Kasyanov goes, there will be intense competition for his job, which will influence both policy - moves are afoot to increase the state's power over big business, especially in natural resources - and Mr Putin's succession.

In parliament, meanwhile, an unexpectedly strong election result for Motherland has emboldened its leaders, particularly Mr Glazyev, who has been stridently advocating even heavier taxes on natural-resources firms. His power may be minimal, but his rhetoric is double-edged: it allows Mr Putin to appear moderate, but it could strike a popular chord too.

A second source of friction is the United States. This week Colin Powell, America's secretary of state, was in Moscow, uttering concerns about democracy, the rule of law and the like - just the things that George Bush said were “thriving” in Russia when Mr Putin visited him last autumn. America's change of heart has as much to do with domestic politics as with sudden disquiet about Russia. As his own presidential election approaches, Mr Bush must listen more to interest groups unhappy about Russian democracy, the Yukos affair and the war in Chechnya. But, as Mr Powell's earlier visit to Georgia showed, opportunities for the two countries to disagree are increasing.

Above all, Mr Putin's popularity is less solid than it looks. According to VTSIOM-A, only 15% of Russians think that Mr Putin is “handling Russia's problems successfully”. Even on the economy, which has boomed during his first term thanks to high oil prices, he does not get high marks. Sarah Mendelson of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who has studied Russians' attitudes in focus groups, says that, thanks to his respectful portrayal by state-run television, people like Mr Putin for being “sober, young, athletic - in other words, not Boris Yeltsin.” But when asked what Mr Putin has achieved, people have trouble answering. He rides high only because he has no serious challenger or critic. Neither is likely to appear soon.

As the opposition wrings its hands, Vladimir Putin's re-election looks inevitable; but, even for him, not everything would be simple thereafter.

http://www.electionguide.org/ http://www.electionguide.org/

---