Russia’s heir apparent has orange appeal

By Robert Cottrell

Date: 17/03/05

Well, there goes one option for Chechnya. You could only ever hope for a political deal between Russia and the Chechen rebels so long as there was a "reasonable" rebel leader with whom the Russians might negotiate. The sole candidate for that role was Aslan Maskhadov, elected president of Chechnya in 1997. Last week the Russians killed him.

Whatever the strategic consequences of Maskhadov's death, it is a tactical victory for Russian hard-liners. Nobody is going to argue seriously that Russia should negotiate now with any of the wilder Chechen warlords.

It would be over-stating things to suggest that the killing was a calculated Russian post-script to last month's edgy summit between George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin in Bratislava. But it certainly conveyed a strong follow-up message. The message was: we do things our way, and if you don't like it, then tough.

That same message was already evident in Vladimir Putin's grim body language at Bratislava. He was hating every minute. Only Bush's practised chumminess kept things cordial.

With Bush and Putin no longer buddies, the problems ahead in US-Russian relations look even more daunting. And Europe will get drawn into them.

One such problem is Moldova. Like Georgia, it wants Russian troops off its soil. America and the European Union could both do more to help. Another is Yukos. It will spawn lawsuits for decades yet, in US and European courts.

More generally, the decline of Russian democracy will make it harder for western countries to treat Russia as a like-minded equal on any issue. Some Americans argue that the Group of Eight (G8) countries should cancel a planned summit in Russia next year, on the grounds that the G8 is for rich democracies, and Russia is neither of those things.

Americans no longer see Russia as a country converging with western values, but as a country diverging from them. Even so, as he showed in Bratislava, Bush still wants to avoid criticising Putin directly. Putin may be awkward, but he is at least civil, and co-operative on some issues. Whoever comes next may be worse.

Until recently I would have agreed with that forward-looking pessimism. But the noises coming now from Mikhail Kasyanov, prime minister of Russia during Putin's first term, make me a touch more hopeful.

Kasyanov is an impressive politician, plausible at home and open to the West. He seems to be toying with the idea of a run for the presidency, and is raising his profile to test the reaction.

If he is indeed thinking this way, then the prospects for Russian politics are better than I feared. A serious competition for power may be possible when the next presidential election comes in 2008.

I doubt anyone would be allowed to beat Putin, were he to change the constitution and run again. But Kasyanov would have a good chance against anyone else, given a fair election. Given a seriously rigged election, and a well-run campaign, he could be Russia's Yushchenko.

For western-style democracy to have any chance of succeeding in Russia, however, it must first succeed in Ukraine. Russians lost faith in democracy a decade ago because their early experience of it was such a shambles. It cannot be seen to fail again now in Ukraine, or Russians will write it off for another generation.

If, on the other hand, real democracy works well in Ukraine, Russians may give it a second look. All the more reason for the west to help, if changing Ukraine could mean changing Russia too. And if it there are also ways to help Kasyanov without getting him labelled a foreigners' puppet, so much the better.

• Robert Cottrell is central Europe correspondent for The Economist.

Analysis feature on Russia's relations with Europe and the US and the future of democracy in the country.