Russia’s counter-revolution revolution

By Andrew Beatty

Date: 21/04/05

With its slightly Soviet-sounding title, the 'Presidential Directorate for Inter-regional Relations and Cultural Contacts with Foreign Countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States' seems inconsequential enough. But most agree this is nothing less than Russian President Vladimir Putin's response to recent upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and Kirgizstan.

Conventional wisdom holds that Moscow has lost influence to both the EU and the US in the colourful revolutions, quasi-revolutions and coups d'état which have been spreading around the former Soviet Union and Putin has decided to do something about it.

In Georgia the malleable former Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze was replaced by a strongly pro-Western government no longer willing to tolerate brazen Russian interference. Ukraine appears to be moving steadily towards EU and NATO membership and Moldova's ruling communist party has abandoned its pro-Moscow line in favour of joining the European Union. Only Kirgizstan does not seem to fit in this analysis very neatly.

In Brussels the question is now, what kind of response will this be?

For some of the increasingly cynical Putin-watchers in Western Europe the move is purely Machiavellian, designed to thwart EU and US interests in the region.

Indeed the background of Modest Kolerov, the man appointed by Putin to head the agency, seems to point to a rather hands-on approach. He reportedly advised Ukraine's losing presidential candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, during the elections last winter and as editor of the Regnum agency he ran editorials about dangers in Russia's

'near abroad', prompting the privately owned Russian paper Kommersant to label him the "velvet counter-revolutionary".

But Kolerov has vociferously denied allegations that his primary role is to stop any further revolutions from taking place that may harm Russia's interests. He recently told journalists that the agency's role was not yet finalised but that it would look into "compatriots living abroad". Other comments point to a role promoting Russian language and culture - or something akin to the work done by the Goethe Institut, Alliance Française, Instituto Cervantes or British Council perhaps.

For a politician such as Putin who has built up his popularity by acting tough - executing the second Chechen war and using bar-room parlance - this does seem a very 'soft' power move.

So does this reflect a fundamental shift in Putin's approach to politics?

"No," says Nina Bachkatov, editor of Russia-eurasia.net. "I think they are basically looking for a way to develop good healthy relations with the CIS (Commonwealth of Indpendent States) republics, which does not look like being bossy or being, what is called in the Anglo-Saxon world, neo-imperialistic. One of the ideas is culture, which is not the worst idea they have had, because after all it [Russian] is a lingua franca, it is part of the culture of the republics that are independent," she said.

"The relations with the CIS have always been a priority in foreign policy for historical reasons, but also for very pragmatic reasons, because it is their main market after all. Now they feel that the floor is slipping under their feet and they are trying to find another formula."

But with many upset at events in Ukraine, how this will play at home is unclear. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has been criticised outside Russia for his alleged imperialist tendencies, much of the country's population remains nationalist.

An opinion poll conducted last year by the pollsters VCIOM showed that as many as 43% of Russians would like the country to be "a great power, respected and feared", against 54% who said they would prefer Russia to be a country with a high standard of living, even if it is not a great power.

A recently leaked military opinion poll showed only 20% of officers supported the Kremlin's current policies. But according to Bachkatov much of the officers' ire may have to do with low wages, monetarisation of benefits and mismanagement, as epitomised by the Kursk disaster.

But with authoritarianism, corruption and poverty still rife in much of the former Soviet republics, more instability or tension is to be expected. Moscow's response remains to be tested.

Article reports on Russian President Vladimir Putin's response to recent upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and Kirgizstan. The foundation of a 'Presidential Directorate for Inter-regional Relations and Cultural Contacts with Foreign Countries and the Commonwealth of Independent States' is widely seen in this light.

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