Russia’s changing security role in Central Asia

Abstract:

The paper explores Russia's role in security in Central Asia, which analysts interpreted as projection of hegemony. It argues that this role is changing and is shaped by a variety of factors, sometimes acting in contradiction to one another. Domestic agenda is influenced by the danger discourse on drugs and anti-migrant sentiment and urges to detach from Central Asia. Moscow maintains a military presence in the region but is uncertain if it has serious enough stakes to justify a robust approach to security. Refusal to intervene in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 serves as a potent case. Regional organisations echo the non-intervention stance. As a ‘cost-benefit’ approach to security gains momentum, the paper asks if a policy of selective engagement is emerging when only the issues threatening Russia directly will be addressed. The implication can be a security vacuum in the region, affected by ethnic conflict, inter-state disputes and the consequences of withdrawal from Afghanistan.