Russia’s ‘carrot and stick’ policy on Ukraine

In May 2015, Russia stepped up its diplomatic activity on Ukraine. Moscow is still putting pressure on the West, and is trying to persuade the US and European Union countries to insist that Kyiv acknowledge Russian demands concerning broad autonomy for the Donbas and constitutional reform in Ukraine.

From Moscow’s point of view, maintaining the status quo in the breakaway ‘republics’ is not beneficial; this situation does not allow Russia to influence the domestic situation throughout the country, and will not stop Ukraine from moving closer to Western structures.

Moscow is also incurring considerable losses from the sanctions imposed by the West, and could also find itself bearing the costs associated with supporting the separatist ‘republics’. To achieve its objectives, the Kremlin is trying to blame Kyiv for not complying with the Minsk agreements signed on 12 February 2015; it is also escalating the tension surrounding the conflict in Ukraine, while continuing its diplomatic efforts and moderating its anti-Western rhetoric.