Russian pledge vs. business-as-usual: Implementing energy efficiency policies can curb carbon emissions

Abstract:

This paper explores possible future trends of GHG emissions of Russia which are helpful for formulating a future mitigation commitment of the country. For this, the paper provides a rough forecast of national CO2 emissions associated with fuel combustion in 2010 - 2020.

The main argument of the paper is that the Russian business-as-usual energy policies can deliver the current Russian pledge in the Copenhagen negotiations.

The paper is structured in five chapters. The first section describes the overall national situation and the key national energy policies which are likely to affect the future GHG emission trends of the country. The second section details the modelling method, assumptions used, and scenarios investigated. The third section describes the modelling results and their implications for setting the Russian emission reduction target whereas the fourth section
compares the findings to those of other research groups. The fifth section highlights research limitations and uncertainties.