Russia ‘is a Delicate Matter’? The View from Central Asia of Putin’s Commitment to the Region

The Central Asian ruling circles continued to view Moscow as a flagship that signaled general evolutions in the post-Soviet space, even if they did not avow it publicly. After the Arab Spring, which had deeply marked the Central Asian political elites, the message from Russia had been well interpreted: regimes could be challenged from the inside by leaderless movements independent of opposition political parties. Even if the Putin political regime stayed afloat in the coming decade and the democratization of Russia did not come onto the agenda, Moscow was at risk of becoming an uncertain actor for the Central Asian ruling circles as much due to its economic as to its strategic commitments in the region.