Russia at the gates of Aleppo

The Syrian army’s Russia-backed encirclement of Aleppo in February 2016 has caused the Geneva peace talks to collapse, the humanitarian crisis to deepen and massive new refugee flows to take off in the direction of Turkey and, ultimately, Europe. But what is at stake for Moscow in this offensive? How does Moscow see its gains and losses, risks and rewards? What is its strategy? And what can we expect from Moscow in the diplomatic process that was restarted on the 11 February 2016.

From November 2015 onwards, Russia’s Syria policy has been - and continues to be - guided by a dichotomy between professionalism and personalisation, which makes it less predictable and more dangerous than would have been the case otherwise. After the Munich meeting on the 11 February 2016 it looks like Moscow is moving closer to achieving its ends when it comes to the professional front - but the personal component is still there, a powder keg next to a bonfire that may yet trigger a larger explosion.

ESO: Background information: Top diplomats to meet in Munich for Syrian peace effort http://www.europeansources.info/record/top-diplomats-to-meet-in-munich-for-syrian-peace-effort/

ESO: Background information: Lessons from Russia’s intervention in Syria http://www.europeansources.info/record/lessons-from-russias-intervention-in-syria/

ECFR: Commentary, 25.02.16: Saving Syria one city at a time: How to deal with the siege of Aleppo http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_saving_syria_one_city_at_a_time_6013

ECFR: Video, 08.03.16: Russia’s strategy in the Middle East http://www.ecfr.eu/article/russias_strategy_in_the_middle_east

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