Russia and Chechnya

Date: 22/03/03

An impending referendum will bring neither peace nor security

IT IS supposed to mark the end of an 11-year fight for independence. On March 23rd, Chechnya will hold a referendum on a new constitution that declares it once more an “autonomous republic” of the Russian Federation. President Vladimir Putin has promised the Chechens “sweeping autonomy”, “extremely flexible schemes” and “a chance to rebuild” their lives if they approve the new charter.

But these are vague pledges. One main reason for a new constitution is legalistic: to let presidential elections take place later in the year, giving Chechnya a leader with more semblance of legitimacy than the current Moscow-appointed head. But the new constitution contains Mr Putin's true message: the Kremlin will have the right to dismiss Chechnya's president at any time, unlike those of other autonomous republics. And any apparent normality that Chechnya's new status seems to bring will be as big a sham as the referendum itself.

The ballot is the latest step in Mr Putin's effort to restore the appearance of order to a land shredded by two wars since the Soviet Union's collapse and a decade of lawlessness. Last year he declared the military campaign, waged since the second war began in 1999, officially over, and handed control to Russia's internal security service, the FSB. In the autumn the authorities began closing down Chechen refugee camps in neighbouring Ingushetia and pressing their residents to go back home. At the end of the year, the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) closed its mission to Chechnya after the government refused to let it carry on monitoring human rights.

But any illusions that things were under control were shattered by two events: the seizure of a Moscow theatre and its audience by rebels in October, and a car bomb attack that destroyed the Moscow-backed administration building in Chechnya's capital, Grozny, in December. Moreover, Russian troops - some 80,000 in the province - continue to be killed by separatist rebels in clashes that have recently intensified. Official figures say under 5,000 soldiers have died since 1999; the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers, a pressure group, estimates more than twice as many.

The local population continues to suffer too. According to Memorial, a Russian human-rights organisation, this year the army is carrying out fewer zachistki, or mopping-up raids, its previously preferred method of hunting down rebels; but disappearances and kidnappings, particularly of young Chechen men who are prime rebel suspects, have increased. Chechens were especially angered in December when Yuri Budanov, a colonel who had raped and strangled an 18-year-old Chechen woman, was acquitted on grounds of temporary insanity. He is still in jail while the prosecution appeals, but it remains to be seen whether the appeal will be heard once the referendum is over.

Few think a referendum in such conditions can be fair. Memorial has refused to legitimise it by sending observers; so too have the OSCE (though it will send a small group of “fact-finders”) and the Council of Europe. There are disputes about the size of the electorate: locals and humanitarian agencies working there say that a recent census was inflated. It claims that the population has grown since the wars began, even though hundreds of thousands of people are thought to have either died or fled. There have been press reports of people being forced to register to vote, on pain of losing food aid. Leaflets supporting the referendum appeared in some villages, purporting to come from Aslan Maskhadov, the rebel leader elected president of Chechnya in 1997; but Mr Maskhadov, from his hideout in the hills, has declared them fake and called for a boycott.

But the referendum will take place, and Chechnya will almost certainly get its constitution, by foul votes or fair. Maybe most Chechens no longer care for independence. The war has ruined their lives. The separatists have brought them no joy; indeed, they profit from the conflict through kidnapping and racketeering, just as the Russian troops profit by taking bribes and selling weapons to the very rebels who are trying to kill them. And though the rebels are too strong to put down, they are not organised or popular enough to relaunch an independence movement.

However, there is no obvious candidate for president - not even the discredited Mr Maskhadov. The true test for Mr Putin's ability to impose normality on Chechnya will come when the republic has to elect a leader.