Rumbles over Kosovo

Serbian leaders are cautioning the EU against supporting independence for Kosovo, with the head of the country’s Orthodox Church warning where it might lead: a map of Europe with new states such as Scotland or the Basque Country.

The United Nations’ special envoy for Kosovo’s status, Martti Ahtisaari, presented his proposals for the future of the province on 2 February. If approved by the UN Security Council, the EU will be requested to appoint a proconsul for the province who would oversee its transition toward independence. Under Ahtisaari’s proposals, the EU representative would have wide-ranging powers in Kosovo, including the power to sack Kosovo’s politicians and veto its laws.

The EU would take over powers from the UN, although its envoy would also answer to a group of "interested countries", very likely the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Russia.

To back up the representative’s work, 1,300 EU police and judicial experts would work to create to ensure the "development of effective, fair and representative rule of law institutions". In practice, the EU mission would have executive powers to police inter-ethnic relations.

Despite reservations about the EU having such substantial powers in the running of the province, Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leaders have called for the UN Security Council to adopt the proposals by April.

By contrast, the Serbian reaction to the proposals has been roundly critical. Vojislav Kostunica, the incumbent prime minister, described the plan as illegitimate.

Kostunica’s reaction had been expected, but even moderate Serbian politicians have reacted negatively to the proposals.

When Serbian politicians of all political hues met in the Serbian capital on Monday (5 February) to discuss Ahtisaari’s proposals, opinions ranged from vehement opposition to denunciation.

The country’s President Boris Tadic, widely seen in the EU as a moderate, has also been critical, describing the plan as unacceptable in its current form.

EU member states have diverging views on what should happen next. While some member states have stressed the need to go back to substantial talks with Serbia before the plan is put into force, others have stressed the need for a quick solution.

The UK, which shares the US’ sense of urgency, accepted that a "period of consultation" was necessary. Others, like Romanian President Traian Basescu, have called for full-blown negotiations to resume.

The EU has been able to agree that further contacts should take place, although the scope of these talks is hotly disputed.

Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, has been threatening to wield its veto in the months leading up to Ahtisaari’s proposals. And since the former Finnish president published a broad outline of his plan on 2 February, Russia has shown few signs that it is ready to back down.

"We need to find a variant that will be accepted both by the Serbs and by Pristina," Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said during a recent visit to Washington.

Although Russia has not been so quick to link Kosovo to other secessionist struggles in recent weeks, Serbs have taken up the baton. The Serbian Orthodox Church has produced a map of Europe with potential new states including Scotland, the Basque Country and Transdniestria, a poignant reminder to countries like Spain, which are increasingly calling for Serbian opinion to be taken into account.

Even if the EU is able to find a way through this diplomatic obstacle course, it faces problems in convincing Kosovo’s Serbian minority to refrain from actively opposing Kosovo’s governing institutions and by extension the EU’s role in Kosovo.

Bishop Artemije, the spiritual leader of Serbs in Kosovo, said the international community had failed Kosovo’s Serbs in the last seven years.

"We are practically conducting our lives as if we are on a big archipelago," the bishop said, claiming that Kosovo’s Serbs had been stripped of basic human rights.

"All this has been happening in the presence of the international community, under the rule of the United Nations and under the protection of Kfor," he added, referring to NATO’s peacekeeping force in the province.

The bishop does not expect the EU to do a better job at restoring the Serbian minority’s rights in the province. "The wide promises that are given to us cannot recover the trust of the Serbian people toward the international community and the EU," he said.

Key elements of Ahtisaari’s plan

• An international civilian representative appointed by the EU will have the power to veto laws and sack Kosovo officials

• Kosovo will be able to negotiate and conclude international agreements and to seek membership of international organisations

• An EU mission will help develop the police force and judicial, customs and penal institutions

• Kosovo will have only one police force, although station commanders can be appointed by local municipalities

• Non-Albanian members of the Kosovo assembly will be able to veto certain laws if a majority agree to do so

• Expanded Kosovo-Serb municipalities will have new powers over healthcare, education and their finances

• Kosovo will adopt a constitution that ensures democracy and Kosovo’s multi-ethnic character

• Forty religious sights will be surrounded by ‘Protective Zones’ to prevent building near by, some will also get physical protection

• All refugees from Kosovo will have the right to return and reclaim property

• A mechanism will be created to establish Kosovo’s share of Serbia’s external debt

• A ‘Kosovo Security Force’ will be created but limited to 2,500 active members; the current Kosovo Protection Corps will be disbanded

• After 120 days the United Nations will cease to have governing powers in Kosovo. In that time a new constitution will be drafted

• General and local elections will be held with nine months of the settlement coming into place

• An international steering group will decide when to disband the international civilian representative

Kosovo quotes

• Our hand is extended, but the Serbs are not yet ready to accept the reality…they live in Kosovo but think that they live in Serbia

Agim Çeku, Kosovo’s prime minister

• Ahtisaari’s plan paves the way for the independence of Kosovo. I told Mr Ahtisaari that neither Serbia nor I, as its president, will ever accept the independence of Kosovo

Boris Tadic, Serbian president

• I expect both parties to demonstrate responsibility, flexibility and a recognition of the need for realistic compromise-based solutions

Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief

• [Ahtisaari’s plan] is fully open to be changed in discussions. Let Mr Ahtisaaari finish his work. I doubt it will be terribly disappointing for you

Frank Wisner, US envoy to Kosovo, on his talks with Kosovo’s government

• We still have no common vision of how this problem should be solved

Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, after talks in Washington

Serbian leaders are cautioning the EU against supporting independence for Kosovo, with the head of the country’s Orthodox Church warning where it might lead: a map of Europe with new states such as Scotland or the Basque Country.