Romania’s presidential election. Another orange win

An unexpected victory for the opposition candidate

INEXPERIENCED as they may be in the ways of democracy, Romania's voters seem keen to explore it to the full. Two weeks ago they elected a parliament without a clear majority. This week they voted Traian Basescu, a plain-spoken former sea captain who has been mayor of Bucharest since 2000, into the presidency. He will try to put together a centre-right government in place of the outgoing socialist one. If he fails, he may have to settle for cohabitation, or even call early elections.

Mr Basescu lagged well behind Adrian Nastase, Romania's outgoing prime minister, in a first round of voting on November 28th. But he narrowly won the run-off on December 12th, thanks to a strong showing in a televised debate, to public anger at alleged ballot-rigging by the socialists, and perhaps to the Ukraine effect (Mr Basescu's colour is orange). Mr Basescu joined Romania's outgoing president, Ion Iliescu, at this week's European Union summit, which the Romanians hope will approve plans to sign a treaty next spring that lets them join the EU in 2007.

Mr Basescu had talked of renegotiating some of Romania's terms of entry, including promises to cut steel output and raise energy prices. But he will be told in Brussels that Romania already has its work cut out preparing for entry in 2007, without wasting time on fresh grumbles. The EU still reserves the right to delay Romania's (and Bulgaria's) accession by a year, until 2008, if either backslides. And it has given Romania a daunting catalogue of improvements needed in government and public services both before and after entry. The biggest doubts concern the competence and independence of Romania's judiciary. A stable government would be a big help at such a time: but the omens do not look good.

Mr Nastase seemed this week to be trying to stay on as prime minister, since his socialist party still has (just) the most seats in the lower house of parliament. But the socialists are demoralised and divided, and Mr Basescu wants a government led by his own two-party coalition, the Justice and Truth Alliance. Out of office, Mr Nastase's future may be bleak. Control of his party will probably revert, after a struggle, to Mr Iliescu, its historic leader.

If Mr Basescu sticks with his plan to appoint a prime minister from Justice and Truth, the new government may have to rely for a majority on two smaller parties, the UDMR and the Humanists, both previously allied with the socialists, and also on most of the 18 independent members. Even then, it would be vulnerable to defections, especially if the socialists could count on tacit support in opposition from the far-right Greater Romania Party.

Whatever the shape of the eventual coalition, it is hard to foresee a government that lasts a full four-year term. If so, the EU should try to be understanding. It is not that Romania is unstable. It is that democracy is starting to work there, as communist habits recede. Mr Basescu is an advance over Mr Iliescu, and the socialists deserved a reverse. Changes such as this week's should be welcomed.

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