Report reinforces need for Balkan stability pact

Date: 20/05/1999

By Simon Taylor

THE huge task which will face EU governments in bringing post-war stability to the Balkans will be underlined in a sobering European Commission report set to be unveiled next week.

The study, which is due to be approved by the full Commission next Wednesday (26 May), paints a bleak picture of the region's progress in adopting western standards of democracy, human rights and the rule of law as the Union tries to forge a 'stability pact' for south-eastern Europe.

Union governments hope to make progress on the details of the pact at a meeting between senior officials from the Balkan states, EU countries, the US, Turkey and Russia next Thursday (27 May), to be followed by ministerial talks in June.

The Commission's analysis of the economic and political reforms introduced in Bosnia, Yugoslavia, Macedonia and Albania shows that even those countries which have worked hardest to guarantee democracy and stability face massive problems. These have been compounded by 'ethnic cleansing' and NATO's air war with Serbia, which have driven 423,000 Kosovars into Albania and 241,000 into Macedonia.

While both countries are praised by the Commission for their human rights records and success in stabilising their economies, the report warns that Albania remains "marked by a lack of public order and security in large parts of the country and widespread crime, arms trafficking, fraud and corruption".

EU foreign ministers have already backed away from previous plans to offer early membership of the EU or NATO as an incentive to keep countries in the western fold. This reflects a recognition of the massive effort still needed by the region's states to meet the economic and political criteria for joining either western club.

Nevertheless, the Union looks set to offer associate status - the closest link short of a formal offer of membership - to Albania and Macedonia in the near future.

For the past two years, the EU's strategy has been to link economic assistance to criteria for democracy and human rights. But in recognition of the slow progress being made by countries in the region, the Commission now favours offering them the extra incentive of a 'stability and association agreement' which would hold out the prospect of closer relations with the Union.

This would, however, create a fresh dilemma for EU politicians: namely, how to allay Bulgaria and Romania's fears that they will be relegated to this new group if, as expected, Union leaders decide not to launch formal enlargement negotiations with either country at their December summit in Helsinki.

According to the Commission's report, Albania and Macedonia are the Balkan region's success stories compared to Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, where EU governments had hoped for the return of western-style democracy and respect for minority rights in the wake of the Bosnian war.

Croatia has one of the worst records in the region for helping refugees to return to the homes they fled during the 1992-95 conflict. The Commission's report also expresses concern about the country's failure to reform its electoral law. "This question is crucially urgent since parliamentary elections will take place before January 2000 and the present system would not permit fair elections to be held," it states.

Croatia's failure to make progress on democratisation has prevented it from benefiting from the EU's Phare programme, which provides €1.5 billion in aid to the countries of central and eastern Europe.

Across the border in Bosnia, the picture is only slightly more encouraging, with efforts to create a multi-ethnic state being hampered by nationalist politicians. Moreover, while economic growth has been strong, this has been driven largely by international aid worth close to €4 billion.