Renewed optimism to adopt European Constitutional Treaty, Spring 2004

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Series Details 13.4.04
Publication Date 13/04/2004
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'People want to see a European constitution. There is a general wish for agreement and I hope that can be achieved. We must take it forward as best we can and do everything humanly possible.. These were the words of Bertie Ahern, Irish Taoiseach and President of the European Council, addressing the Irish Parliament on 6 April 2004. Mr. Ahern was updating the Dáil on progress with negotiations on the proposed Constitutional Treaty which, having apparently been derailed in December, when the European Council failed to reach agreement on a draft text, now seems to be very much back on track.

The failure of December's talks was blamed largely on Spain and Poland, who held out for increased voting rights allocated to them under the Treaty of Nice. It was therefore particularly significant that Mr. Ahern has apparently made progress in talks both with Poland's Prime Minister Lesek Miller (who has announced that he will resign on 2 May) and - unofficially - with Spain's incoming Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Although Mr Ahern warned the Dáil that there are still some 30 issues which remain to be agreed, it is clear that he is now far more optimistic than he was that a deal can be reached - and quite possibly under the Irish Presidency, which ends on 30 June.

Background

The Union's unexpected failure to adopt a Constitutional Treaty at the end of last year was seen variously as a significant setback to its plans for managing an enlarged membership, as a body-blow for the cause of European integration, and as evidence of how hard it will be for 25 Member States to reach agreement on contentious issues. More information about the Summit can be found in European Sources Online: In Focus The European Constitution: current state of negotiations following the Brussels European Council, December 2003.

Early assessments gave the Irish little chance of getting agreement on a new Treaty during their six-month term in charge of the Union. The gaps seemed too wide to bridge, with that over voting rights, which divided Spain and Poland on the one side from the remaining members on the other, being especially problematic. Many commentators thought that the succeeding Dutch Presidency would be better placed to contrive an agreement - having in part benefited from Ireland's negotiating efforts.

The author of the draft Treaty, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, was one of a number of high-profile figures who suggested that the negotiations be postponed, 'until the bitterness triggered by the Brussels summit fades away'. That has not, however, been Ireland's approach. Even though, as European Voice put it, 'in the beginning the Irish were very pragmatic about the constitutional talks, and did not want to burn their fingers with such a hot potato, unless the conditions were ripe for an accord, now it looks like they don't want to miss the opportunity to put their mark on such a debate' (see: PM Ahern moves to scotch talk of presidential 'black hole' on constitution).

Ireland's willingness to pursue negotiations was emphasised by Minister for Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowan, who told MEPs that 'it is in the Union's interests for agreement to be reached sooner rather than later. Stalemate and delay serve nobody. The issues to be resolved will not change over time (see: IGC - Presidency addresses European Parliament Constitutional Affairs Committee ...). Mr Cowan also indicated the priority the Irish would give to consulting all those concerned: 'We have to listen to what everyone has to say and, through active dialogue, tease out the exact nuances of their positions.'

Although the Irish had been pursuing negotiations with both Spain and Poland, it was the Madrid bombings which gave a sudden and positive impetus to the process. Prime Minister-elect, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, quickly made it clear that his Government would adopt a much more communautaire approach to the negotiations. (Only two days before the terrorist attacks, Spain had rejected a further compromise from the Irish; see Financial Times: Madrid rejects EU compromise on voting weights).

Mr Zapatero's willingness to seek an early resolution to the impasse persuaded Poland's Lesek Miller that his country faced isolation if it too did not take a more positive line. According to the Financial Times, the Prime Minister, 'said he did not want his country to be isolated after the new Socialist government in Spain signalled it would no longer fight alongside Poland in a battle over EU voting weights' (see: Poles clear path for deal on EU constitution). Both countries are, however, likely to extract concessions for their renewed flexibility. The Financial Times identified three: 'more seats in the European parliament', 'a delay in the introduction of a new voting system, possibly until 2014', and 'a change to the “double majority” voting formula in the draft constitution'. The last point reportedly raises a number of possibilities: the current situation calls for a vote to be carried by 50% of Member States, representing 60% of the Union's population; Spain might opt for a 64% population threshold; Poland might settle at 55% for both criteria (see: Talks on EU constitution face point of no return).

According to European Voice the proposals to change the double majority system were described by Giscard d'Estaing as a 'non-starter' (see: Giscard 'non' to constitution compromise). Mr Ahern has expressed concern that both Spain and Poland see the voting issue as essentially being about 'their ability to block', rather than 'making the system work' (see Irish Presidency: Ahern says Europe must be positive and move forward on new Constitution).

The Irish Presidency had been asked to present a report on progress to the Spring European Council, on 25-26 March. However, events in Madrid meant that the Summit was largely devoted to the issue of terrorism, with most of the original agenda items sidelined. The Presidency Conclusions made only a brief reference to the Intergovernmental Conference, saying that leaders 'reaffirmed [their] commitment to reaching agreement on the Constitutional Treaty, as a means of better equipping the Union to respond to the demands of its citizens and to play a more effective role in the world.. It was also confirmed that 'agreement on the Constitutional Treaty should be reached no later than the June [2004] European Council.'

Ahead of the Summit, other Member States had also started to offer concessions and to adopt more conciliatory positions. The FT reported that 'Paris and Berlin have done their bit to bridge the gap with Spain and Poland. After toying with the damaging idea of creating an “avant-garde” of countries pushing ahead with European integration, they have recently adopted a softer diplomatic stance' (see: Spain sets the agenda for a more integrated Europe). The position of the United Kingdom was also highlighted, with the UK Government 'prepared to abandon one of its “red line” positions in the negotiations over the European constitution by removing the national veto from key areas of judicial co-operation' (see: UK set to climb down over EU constitution).

It was pointed out in European Voice that 'the belief that the present disagreements can be adequately addressed by coming up with compromises at the European level' is misconceived, because 'the main problems with the constitution are domestic' (see: Suspend constitution talks to consult people). This highlights the next hurdle which any new Constitutional Treaty must face: ratification by the Member States. As the Financial Times put it: 'It may have seemed like a good idea at the time, but Europe's constitution is about to become a political nightmare for many of the EU leaders who launched it more than two years ago' (see: Loss of appetite for European rhubarb).

The same article posed the question of how politicians 'who like to blame Brussels for many of their domestic problems' will be able to persuade their Parliaments - and in some cases their citizens - that Europe needs another Treaty. Some Member States will give their citizens the opportunity to vote on the Treaty: referenda will be held in Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. Other countries may yet be added to the list. The European Union's experience of referenda has not been particularly happy. The Danish 'no' to the Treaty on European Union caused widespread concern (and still influences the Union's communication policy), as did Ireland's rejection of the Treaty of Nice. Both results were later overturned - but holding one referendum after another until the 'right' result is achieved does not do a great deal for the Union's democratic credentials. (Sweden's 'no' to the euro still stands).

Even though, as the Financial Times argued, the Constitution 'presents the EU as it is: a hybrid structure with some federal traits but anchored in the nation state - and not the “superstate” of eurosceptic myth' (see: Back from the dead), it will be difficult for many Governments to persuade the public that the Treaty should be ratified. So even if Mr Ahern gets agreement in June, the EU seems likely to have an even tougher fight on its hands if the Constitutional Treaty is to be adopted in anything like its current form.

Further information within European Sources Online

European Sources Online: In Focus

13.10.03: Launch of the Intergovernmental Conference 2003, October 2003
22.12.03: The European Constitution: current state of negotiations following the Brussels European Council, December 2003

European Sources Online: The Economist

07.02.04: European Union constitution: Back from the dead
24.01.04: Polish politics. Miller's crossing
03.01.04: Charlemagne: Of wars and weighted votes

European Sources Online: European Voice

25.03.04: European Left urges more social constitution
11.03.04: Giscard 'non' to constitution compromise
19.02.04: Commission plan paves way for first EU foreign minister
19.02.04: Suspend constitution talks to consult people
12.02.04: Constitution will fall apart if talks fail again, says premier
29.01.04: Polish president still hopeful of constitution deal before 1 May
22.01.04: How to make peace with the pesky Poles
22.01.04: IGC in rescue bid over constitution
22.01.04: Kok hits out over constitution impasse
22.01.04: 'Nice Treaty or die' mentality is rubbish, insists Poland's old firebrand Lech Walesa
15.01.04: PM Ahern moves to scotch talk of presidential 'black hole' on constitution

European Sources Online: Financial Times

27.03.04: Back from the dead
27.03.04: Blair seeks rapid deal on draft constitution
26.03.04: Ahern's problem does not deserve a solution
26.03.04: EU treaty returns to haunt ministers
25.03.04: Howard promises to renegotiate EU constitution
25.03.04: It's crunch time for the constitution
25.03.04: Loss of appetite for European rhubarb
24.03.04: Compromise plan
24.03.04: Talks on EU constitution face point of no return
24.03.04: UK set to climb down over EU constitution
23.03.04: Irish signal bid to agree EU constitution
22.03.04: Spain sets the agenda for a more integrated Europe
19.03.04: Poles clear path for deal on EU constitution
17.03.04: Go for a deal
17.03.04: Socialist win revives hopes of ending impasse
16.03.04: Hopes of end to deadlock on new EU constitution
10.03.04: Madrid rejects EU compromise on voting weights
09.03.04: Germany to compromise on Europe's deadlocked constitution
06.03.04: Portugal urges speedy deal on EU constitution
27.01.04: Ireland's impetus revives hope for EU draft treaty
16.01.04: Europe clings to the past and recoils from the future
16.01.04: Poland's concern is for the future of the Union
15.01.04: Europe can trust in the support of France
09.01.04: Ahern keen to revive EU constitutional talks
07.01.04: Prodi says EU needs new constitution to avoid split
02.01.04: Failure to agree a new EU constitution shows that the goodwill of new members cannot be taken for granted

Further information can be seen in these external links:
(long-term access cannot be guaranteed)

EU Institutions

European Commission

DG Press and Communication

Press releases
  26.03.04: Presidency Conclusions Brussels European Council 25/26 march 2004 [D/04/1]
  17.02.04: EU Constitution: a large majority of people want their government to make concessions to secure agreement [IP/04/216]
Memos
  16.03.04: Enlargement and institutional changes [MEMO/04/61]

Public Opinion Analysis

Eurobarometer

The Future European Constitution

Irish Presidency of the Council of the EU

07.04.04: Ahern says Europe must be positive and move forward on new Constitution
25.03.04: IGC to finish no later than June Summit - European Council
29.01.04: Taoiseach and Polish Prime Minister Share Commitment to Making Progress on IGC
20.01.04: IGC - Presidency addresses European Parliament Constitutional Affairs Committee. Minister for Foreign Affairs Brian Cowen today addressed the European Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee on the current state of play regarding the IGC

Media Organisations

BBC News Online

29.03.04: Blair warns of Europe 'paralysis'
27.03.04: Anger at Blair's EU stance
27.03.04: EU leaders unite at summit
27.03.04: Europe's papers relieved after EU summit
26.03.04: Blair pushes for early EU deal
26.03.04: Blair's EU constitution challenge
26.03.04: EU pledges early constitution deal
24.03.04: EU voting row explained
23.03.04: Poles 'back down' on EU charter
22.03.04: What the EU constitution says
14.01.04: Ahern warns on constitution delay
08.01.04: Ahern seeks swift constitution deal
06.01.04: Prodi warning on two-speed Europe

Eric Davies
Researcher
Compiled: 13 April 2004

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