Rehn keeps doors open for further enlargement

In the face of considerable political opposition, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn yesterday (8 November) set out the case for further expansion of the EU.

Presenting the Commission’s strategy on enlargement and the annual reports on seven countries’ progress towards joining the EU, Rehn admitted that the coming months would be difficult, but insisted that enlargement was the "very essence" of European integration.

Despite his playful references to Bob Dylan, Credence Clearwater Revival and George Orwell, the difficulties that the commissioner faces in keeping enlargement on the agenda in the coming months and years are evident.

His most pressing task will be to help reach a deal allowing Turkey to open its ports and airports to ships and planes from all EU member states, including Cyprus, in exchange for ending the Turkish Cypriots’ isolation - by mid-December.

The Commission said it would wait until just before EU leaders meet in Brussels on 14-15 December before recommending whether talks with Turkey should be suspended over the dispute, the "train crash" that Rehn had warned against.

Most analysts agree that the prospect for a deal is not good, but Rehn said "option ‘B’ is bad or worse".

With the Spring presidential elections looming in France, Rehn attempted to reassure France and other member states sceptical about further enlargement that the Commission would not support expansion at any cost.

He promised impact assessments at all stages of the accession process to ensure the EU’s ability to absorb new members and to make sure that potential members are ready to join the Union.

The Commission’s report pointed out that the EU’s ability to meet its political and economic goals would be taken into account before future accessions would go ahead.

Rehn indicated that future enlargement would be built upon three pillars: making no new commitments, employing strict rules on existing commitments and promoting enlargement at home.

He also said there would be no further enlargements until a new institutional settlement is agreed in the EU, meaning 2009 at the earliest. But Rehn reiterated the medium- to long-term perspective for the countries of the western Balkans to join the EU.

He sought to convince the Balkan countries that the enlargement perspective was real by promising simplified visa procedures to allow their citizens to travel more easily into the EU.

But concern about enlargement fatigue and the deepening crisis with Turkey is growing in the region. One senior politician from a Balkan state remarked: "We just don’t want to be collateral damage from Turkey."

Albania’s divisive politics remain the focus of the Commission’s report on the country. In 2006 the two principal parties, the Democratic Party led by Prime Minister Sali Berisha and the Socialist Party led by former Tirana mayor Edi Rama, have been at loggerheads causing administrative deadlock. The EU has frequently been required to moderate, as in the case of controversial legislation on electoral reform.

"Albania has yet to demonstrate the capacity to achieve domestically generated political co-operation," the report concludes.

"Periods of political deadlock in spring and summer 2006 hampered the parliament’s efforts to deal with important reform issues, particularly those which require broad political consensus."

Although the Commission praises the Albanian parliament for its increasingly important role in decision-making, the parliament "still faces technical and administrative shortfalls".

The Commission’s report is also deeply critical of corruption and restrictions on freedom of the media.

Albania is praised for continuing a "prudent monetary policy" that served to keep inflation under control. The report notes, however, that power shortages at the end of 2005 had a significant impact on gross domestic product, knocking around half a percentage point off the annual total.

Albania signed a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) on 12 June, although ratification has not yet been concluded.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Like neighbouring Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) progress toward joining the EU hinges on dealing with political legacies from the collapse of Yugoslavia.

The Commission notes that since November 2005, when talks began on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) - a key stepping-stone to EU membership - BiH has made good overall progress, despite little movement in one or two key areas.

"Negotiations have progressed well from a technical point of view and a substantial part of the text of the future SAA has been agreed. But the conclusion of the negotiations is dependent on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress in implementing key reforms," the report states.

Top of the EU’s wish-list for BiH is reform of the constitution and the establishment of a unified police service.

The report says that the failure by parliamentarians to adopt a new constitution in April this year, one that does not ossify existing ethnic splits, "undermines Bosnia and Herzegovina’s capacity to make rapid progress toward the EU".

The lack of political co-ordination was replicated in economic policies and the Commission criticised the government for failing to give the National Fiscal Council the teeth to co-ordinate policy effectively.

Although Croatia is the closest to EU membership of all the Balkan states - it began accession negotiations in October 2005 and has provisionally closed negotiations on science and research - the Commission’s report on Croatia is critical across a range of issues, most notably the independence of the police and judiciary, and on corruption.

The Commission welcomed the Croatian parliament’s moves to investigate two members of parliament for conflict of interest, but said that "investigative commissions appear to be used partly as a political tool rather than a serious means to tackle conflicts of interest".

Similarly Croatia is criticised for slow reform of its intelligence services and the police force.

"Possible links between organised crime and the police are not always followed up," the report states. "Many allegations of corruption remain un-investigated and corrupt practices usually go unpunished."

The independence of the judiciary is also called into question: "Croatia is still some way from enjoying an independent, impartial, transparent and efficient system, the establishment of which will be an important indicator of Croatia’s readiness for eventual membership and a prerequisite for the successful implementation of the acquis communitaire," the report concludes. In the economic sphere Croatia is praised for its commitment to reform, but, the Commission warns, failure to communicate between ministries undermined economic policy.

The next few months are likely to be decisive for the future of Kosovo, as UN envoy Marti Ahtisaari prepares to launch his final report on whether or not the province should be independent.

With this in mind, the Commission’s report treads carefully through relations between the ethnic Albanian majority and Serb minority, although the latter is criticised for failing to take part in Kosovo’s institutions and for setting up parallel institutions, duplicating already scarce resources.

The Commission presses both sides to adopt a language law to ensure that cultural rights are upheld and to reinforce efforts to bolster local government.

Kosovo’s institutions are praised for adopting a package of reforms in 2006 that dealt with transparency and financial accountability, but the Commission adds that the measures were not enough.

Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn says that Kosovo needs to have treaty-making powers, but the report warns that capacity to implement agreements remains limited due lack of resources. The establishment of a new ministry for justice and a reformed justice system are cited as an improvement towards tackling the backlog of around 45,000 legal cases.

On the economy, the Commission notes the decline in donors’ support and laments "the lack of dynamism in the economy".

Around 37% of the population are thought to live in poverty.

Although Macedonia was declared a candidate country on 17 December 2005, it has still not been given a date to start accession negotiations. It is expected to be given a date in the course of 2007.

The Commission praises the authorities in Skopje for reforming the constitution to meet EU standards and for holding elections, although on this count there were question marks.

The Commission says that the elections, held in July, were an improvement on previous polls but "there were significant irregularities on the election day. Ballot stuffing, family voting, intimidation and other types of fraud continued to occur, albeit at lower levels than in previous elections".

The Commission also reports that the formation of a new government has meant that reforms have slowed slightly, although initial fears that some governing parties would equivocate on EU membership do not appear to have materialised.

The report praises Macedonian politicians for gaining political consensus on establishing a functioning market economy.

Montenegro gained independence in June this year and began negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) in September but the Commission reports that substantial progress has already been made toward joining the EU and reaching a deal on an SAA.

Because of the EU’s earlier decision to pursue parallel talks with Serbia and Montenegro, the authorities in Podgorica have been able to build on an SAA deal that Montenegro and Serbia had already agreed with the EU prior to partition.

The main concerns expressed by the Commission are about Montenegro’s ability to implement the SAA and other international agreements.

Although the country has all the experience gleaned from being part of a union with Serbia, it was Serbia that inherited many of the institutions after the break-up of the state union.

In the areas of defence, foreign affairs, visa, asylum and migration, intellectual property and standardisation, the Commission notes that Montenegro still has a lot to do to build capacity.

"Particular attention should be paid to the signature and ratification of international instruments, given that Montenegro is not the successor of the union," the report says.

The Commission also urges Montenegro to adopt a new constitution in line with EU standards and values.

The greatest obstacle to Serbia moving closer to EU membership remains its failure to arrest and capture Radko Mladic´ (pictured below).

The Commission’s report is deeply critical of the government’s failure to arrest the wartime general and suspected war criminal, who is wanted by The Hague tribunal.

The report says that the body set up to help track Mladic´ and five other suspects has not been given adequate resources to do its job and an action plan to catch them has not been implemented. Serbia is also criticised for failing to establish a credible witness protection programme and for failing to control sections of the military that have supported Mladic´ and others.

"Civilian oversight of the military…has remained inefficient," says the report.

But Belgrade is praised for adopting a law which freezes the fugitives’ assets.

Serbia is also congratulated for its conduct during the divorce from Montenegro on 15 June.

The political calendar in Serbia looms large in the report, with the Commission criticising the rapid adoption of a new constitution, which passed into law yesterday (Wednesday 8 November), and calling for a new law on elections to be brought into force. Elections are expected in late 2006 or early 2007. One casualty of the electoral period has been the Serbian position on Kosovo. The Commission criticises Serbia for failing to promote Serb co-operation in Kosovo’s institutions.

There is also an implicit warning not to link the fate of Kosovo with the fate of Bosnia’s Serb enclave Republika Srpska.

The Commission warns that divergences of opinion between the central bank of Serbia and the finance ministry need to be addressed.

In the face of considerable political opposition, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn yesterday (8 November) set out the case for further expansion of the EU.