Regional implications of NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan: What role for the EU?

The US and NATO may have a date to leave Afghanistan, but they still lack a realistic exit strategy. There is no credible plan for a political and security transition within the country.

It is difficult to believe that the weak Kabul government will be able to provide security or hold the Taliban at bay. Moreover, there is no meaningful strategy to embed the 2014 draw-down within the complex power dynamics of the region. A sustainable solution for Afghanistan requires a negotiated political settlement that is backed by regional powers.

Although Afghanistan’s internal politics will be crucial, its neighbours will significantly shape the country’s future following NATO’s departure. Moreover, developments in Afghanistan will have profound implications for security in its neighbourhood. Despite this, the US and its EU allies have so far failed effectively to situate their goal of stabilising Afghanistan within the broader dynamics of the region.

To do so requires identifying the interests of the different regional actors in Afghanistan and the incentives that could encourage them to support an Afghan peace deal, as well as understanding how failure in Afghanistan may affect regional stability.