Re-drawing the map of migration patterns

The Ukrainian crisis has triggered a redirection of migration patterns in the post-Soviet space, affecting both host countries and suppliers alike.

The crisis in Ukraine has brought about serious changes not only in geopolitics, but external socio-economic relations in the post-Soviet space. The latter is bound to lead to qualitative and quantitative changes to migration corridors. The significant drop in the price of oil and other fuel – the main exports of Kazakhstan and Russia – has seriously damaged the attractiveness of these countries’ labour markets. The rouble devaluation resulted in the decline of Russia’s migration potential and, consequently, negative transformations of the economic potentiality.

Given the lack of clarity on the possible settlement of the crisis in Ukraine, one should expect a decline in the inbound migration flows within Russia and, therefore, a growth in the numbers of labour migrants returning to their countries of origin. Both the crisis in Ukraine and the potential scenario of collapsing migration corridors carry risks for economic, political and social stability in the countries supplying migrants, and the entire region in general.