Projected trends in candidate countries’ debt ratios in the light of the 2003 fiscal notifications

This note develops a set of government debt projections that relies upon the deficit and debt data reported in April 2003 and the fiscal plans presented in the 2002 Pre-Accession Economic Programmes (PEPs). It, thereby, takes advantage of the further progress towards compliance with the EU methodology shown by the 2003 fiscal notifications. Due to the present absence of commonly agreed projections on age-related expenditures, however, this note can only offer some preliminary insights on the medium-term1 sustainability of public finance in the candidate countries (CCs), and the acceding countries in particular (ACs)2. To this end, after briefly recalling the current budgetary position of the CCs and discussing some methodological issues, the paper illustrates the projected evolution of CCs' debt to GDP ratio under different scenarios. The note concludes highlighting the preliminary nature of these remarks and suggesting areas for further work

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http://ec.europa.eu/comm/economy_finance/publications/enlargement_papers/elp16_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/comm/economy_finance/publications/enlargement_papers/elp16_en.htm

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