Progress slows in negotiations with South Africa

Date: 27/06/1996

THE momentum predicted in the euphoric statements which used to accompany South African leaders' visits to Europe has all but gone from negotiations between the two sides.

There is even some risk of an impasse, as South African negotiators are now starting to fashion their own counter-offer to the EU's negotiating platform for a free trade agreement, which they say is unacceptable.

Pretoria's trade officials say they hope to have their position fixed by late September, at which point they will contact the European Commission to set up another meeting.

“Then we can thrash out the differences,” said one.

A two-day negotiating session in Brussels last week ended without progress as the South African team held back from responding to the EU offer. That left Commission officials angry at being unable to get moving on their three-month-old offer.

But after waiting five months for EU governments to agree on their negotiating position, Pretoria feels no obligation to rush and has said it will not be bullied into starting talks on a bad proposal.

Back home, South African trade officials are now consulting their government and neighbouring countries on the current Union proposals. “We understand the EU position better now, so we can start to formulate our own position,” said one.

Pretoria already has a few ideas. For instance, its version of the negotiating mandate will omit the list of South African agricultural produce the EU wants excluded from free trade. Instead, the trade official said, it will probably contain a list of European industrial goods which enter South Africa in huge volumes, such as machinery, equipment and vehicles, as markets they want to protect.

It is fairly easy to guess the Commission's response to such a proposal and Pretoria trade officials are well aware, as one said, that “some of those products will be really difficult”.

But Pretoria believes it must take a stand to defend not only itself, but also three neighbouring countries, from being overrun by EU exports. Because South Africa is linked to Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland in a customs union, they also have a say.

Through the Union's Lomé Convention, the three countries have free access to European markets but are protected from EU imports. “Now the danger is that if they go with us into the free trade agreement, they will expose their industry to European competition,” said a South African diplomat.

He explained that Pretoria was going through a “very elaborate procedure to see whether a free trade agreement with the EU would be good for us”.

Chief EU negotiator Steffen Smidt has publicly complained that President Nelson Mandela's government is dragging its feet in preparing for talks.

He even told a conference of potential investors in South Africa that Pretoria appeared not to want an agreement with Europe that would lead to free trade.

Frustration has been boiling over on both sides. Last month, South African Agriculture Minister Kraai van Niekerk criticised the trade offer, complaining that the Union had excluded 40&percent; of South African farm exports and reneged on its promises of development aid.

Expectations fell dramatically during the two days of talks last week, from the pre-meeting pep talk by Development Commissioner João de Deus Pinheiro's spokesman (“We think it's necessary and possible to conclude an agreement by the end of the year”) to post-meeting admissions by EU negotiatiors (“We now have more doubts than a few months ago”).

Nevertheless, diplomatic contacts continue at full pace. Deputy President Thabo Mbeki was in Madrid last week (20-21 June), and Mandela will visit London on 9-12 July and Paris on 13-17 July.

During his stay in Madrid, Mbeki said: “All of us want to expedite this process. I don't think there are any attempts to defeat it.”

But the mere fact he was in Madrid was seen as a sign that Pretoria is worried about the trade negotiations. Spain opposes the arrival of South African citrus fruit which might rival its own. France has a similar fear of South African apples and pears, and Mandela will doubtless discuss agricultural trade when in Paris.

Whether the countries' two superstars can mount enough of a lobby to wear down EU opposition to free farm trade with Pretoria remains to be seen.