Prodi keeps options open as Turkish victors press for their date with destiny

Date: 07/11/02

By David Cronin

The Islamist Justice and Development party's victory in the Turkish elections received a low-key response from the Commission president. He, and others, will be waiting to see if the new regime can live up to its reform pledges.

TWO elections, two different reactions. When Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva swept to power in Brazil's presidential poll on 27 October, Romano Prodi publicly congratulated the one-time leftist firebrand.

His greetings were in stark contrast to the European Commission's response to the landslide win for the Justice and Development party (AKP) in Turkey last Sunday (3 November). Even though Ankara is seeking to join the EU, the best the Union's executive could do was to issue a statement, saying it 'takes note of the outcome of the elections and is ready to cooperate with the new government'.

A number of senior EU figures have stressed that the Union is not a Christian club but a club of democracies.

No politically correct leader is likely to confess to Islamophobia; indeed, many have gone to considerable lengths since 11 September last year to stress there should be no facile equation between the Muslim world and extremism.

However, it seems clear from the subdued tone of the Commission statement that many in Brussels and other EU capitals aren't enthused about an Islamic party taking the reins of power in Ankara.

During a recent visit to Brussels, the party's deputy leader Abdullah Gül went to considerable lengths to stress his moderate credentials.

Gül, tipped to become the new prime minister as the AKP chief Recep Tayyip Erdogan is banned from running for office due to a conviction for inciting religious hatred, underlined his support for EU membership.

And he insisted he will continue with reforms aimed at turning Turkey into a Western-style democracy.

Gül pressed all the right buttons for his EU audience. Yet he will have to back up his rhetoric with action if he is to dispel suspicions about the AKP agenda.

These suspicions haven't arisen in a vacuum; they've been formed due to hardline comments, including harsh criticisms of the EU, which Erdogan has made in the past.

Not surprisingly, then, the Union's policy-makers concentrated this week on telling Turkey its reform path must be irreversible.

Enlargement Commissioner Günter Verheugen said he thought the government will be reformist in nature before giving some examples of what he wants it to do.

He zoomed in on the country's prisons, calling for the release of those jailed because of their political views and voicing particular concern about the continuing detention of former Kurdish MP Selim Sadak. In July 2001, the European Court of Human Rights found that Sadak's trial had been manifestly unfair.

Verheugen also called on the incoming administration to 'radically and comprehensively end torture', ensuring that security force members who resorted to ill-treatment are brought to justice.

His comments were echoed by MEPs. Dutch Green Joost Lagendijk, head of the EU-Turkey joint parliamentary delegation, said that the AKP 'bears a big responsibility to continue the bold reforms, which Turkey needs if it is to come closer to the European Union.'

'In the rather moderate AKP, Turkey seems to have an Islamic equivalent to the Christian Democrat parties in Europe. We call on the AKP to respect a clear separation of state and religion, as this is a fundamental principle of all democracies.'

Liberal group chief Graham Watson said the decision of the only other grouping in the new Turkish parliament, the Republican People's party, to row in behind the reforms 'augurs well for Turkey's prospects'.

Nevertheless, Turkish calls for December's EU summit to give a firm date for starting formal accession talks look set to be rejected. Most indications are that the Union's leaders will insist on a verifiable improvement in the country's human rights record before entertaining that prospect.

Yet it seems probable that Turkey will be given some kind of a conditional offer, stating that negotiations could conceivably start in a few years time if tangible progress is made by then.

This 'date for a date' idea is winning support from the five most populous member states, Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy.

Who knows what might happen with that perennially tricky issue of Cyprus? Shortly before his poll victory, Gül called on the Union to delay taking a decision on Cypriot membership until a new government was installed in Ankara.

The AKP has eschewed fighting talk about the island recently. Yet few doubt that the possibility of Cyprus entering the EU without a deal on how its two main communities will share the island would stoke tensions in the Mediterranean.

The face-to-face talks between Glafcos Clerides, Greek Cypriot prime minister, and Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader, have been stalled recently as the latter has been undergoing surgery.

This week Verheugen hoped aloud that Denktash will be well enough to resume them soon, so that a last-ditch attempt to thrash out a settlement can be made before Copenhagen.

The feedback from both sides in the talks hasn't been positive. Denktash's demands that there be two internationally recognised states on the island appear to have been spurned out of hand by Clerides, thwarting hopes of a deal.

Yet there are indications that Kofi Annan, the UN's secretary general, will shortly unveil a blueprint for a possible settlement.

It may take something of a miracle for both sides to embrace such a plan. Then again, stranger things have happened.

Meanwhile, Javier Solana, the EU's foreign policy supremo, is likely to spend much of the coming weeks trying to twist Turkish and Greek arms to achieve a breakthrough in their protracted row over military planning.

The spat has prevented an accord allowing the EU's rapid reaction force to avail itself of NATO facilities. As a result, it is hampering preparations for EU troops to take over the NATO-led Amber Fox operation in Macedonia next month.

It would be premature to predict a rapprochement between Greece and Turkey, given both their long memories of historical bickering.

But there was some reason to be cheerful this week. According to Erdogan, Greek premier Costas Simitis was the first foreign leader to phone him with congratulations.

Erdogan has also vowed to visit Athens in about a week's time to discuss EU issues.

There will be plenty of prayers - by both Christians and moderate Muslims - that these bear fruit.

Analysis of the European Union's reaction to the Islamist Justice and Development party's victory in the Turkish elections, 3 November 2002.