Pressure set to pay off for Turkey

Date: 12/12/02

By Dana Spinant and David Cronin

EU LEADERS are set to give Turkey a conditional date for starting accession negotiations at the Copenhagen summit, amid intense pressure from Ankara and Washington.

The 15 look set to back a Franco-German plan which suggests that Turkey could launch negotiations in July 2005. That may not satisfy its new leadership, who have been pressing for a firm date. Yet until a few weeks ago, any date, conditional or otherwise, looked a long-shot.

The summit (12-13 December) should wrap up a deal paving the way for ten countries - mostly ex-Communist - to enter the EU in 2004. But this historic achievement is likely to be overshadowed by the Turkish question.

On the eve of the summit, US President George W. Bush telephoned Danish premier Anders Fogh Rasmussen. He claimed he did not want to intervene in EU internal matters, but stressed the strategic importance of Turkey.

Under the Franco-German plan, the European Commission would assess Turkish progress towards fulfilling the "Copenhagen criteria" - political and economic conditions for joining the EU - in late 2004. If Turkey has made adequate progress, it could be invited to start accession talks the following year.

However, four member states - Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden and Luxembourg - are known to harbour reservations about this approach. They are wary of granting even a conditional offer to Ankara until it can prove it is implementing human rights reforms.

However officials from all four countries told European Voice last night that they did not believe their governments would scupper a deal supported by the majority of EU countries.

Turkey's new rulers are likely to be disappointed if the Franco-German plan wins the day. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party, insists on a review of Ankara's preparedness in Spring 2004, before the first wave of entrant countries join the Union. He fears an evaluation by 25 member states instead of 15 could further complicate Ankara's chances.

"They are concerned the new states would want to protect their financial advantages, and postpone Turkey's entry," a Commission official said.

However, a Turkish diplomat insisted its leaders would not regard an agreement based on the Franco-German plan as a total defeat. "Sure, the government will not be happy, but that doesn't mean it will declare war on Europe. All reactions will be measured."

Commission insiders said President Romano Prodi's team fears that by giving Turkey a date for starting accession talks, the EU leaders would tie the Commission's hands.

"It [the Commission] would be perceived by Turkey as being the bad guy if it says in 2004 that the country still does not meet the criteria," one said.

The EU was also expected to use the debate on a date to step up pressure on Ankara to accept a United Nations plan for the divided island of Cyprus.

Parallel negotiations on Cyprus under UN auspices will take place in Copenhagen during the summit, Rasmussen announced yesterday. He said that he offered Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, facilities to hold talks in the Danish capital.

It was also confirmed that Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash will not be travelling to Copenhagen because he is still undergoing medical treatment following a recent heart operation in New York.

His Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus - recognised only by Ankara - will be represented by Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertugruloglu.

Danish diplomats stress the two negotiations will not be directly linked, and Cyprus will be admitted to the EU, even if no agreement is reached on the UN plan.

EU leaders are set to give Turkey a conditional date for starting accession negotiations at the European Council in Copenhagen on 12-13 December 2002, amid intense pressure from Ankara and Washington.