Press Release: Economic impact of enlargement to central and eastern Europe a positive-sum game for all

The Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs published Enlargement Paper No.4, in June 2001. It concludes that CEEC countries have generally made great progress in becoming well functioning market economies. Their commitment to continue and deepen their reforms will be crucial to the success of enlargement. The economic gains from enlargement could increase the GDP growth of EU accession countries by up to 2% on yearly average in the 10 years surrounding the date of accession, depending on whether additional reforms are undertaken. The effect for the EU-15 would be a small but positive 0.7% cumulative increase on growth over 2000-9 period, with Germany and Austria being the greatest beneficiaries. Net-migration flows are expected to be limited and to affect mainly these two countries. Finally, the impact of enlargement on the European agricultural sector is foreseen to be moderate in the first years after accession.