Pre-empting defeat: In search of North Korea’s nuclear doctrine

Author (Person)
Publisher
Series Title
Series Details November 2017
Publication Date 22/11/2017
ISBN 978-1-911544-37-1
Content Type

Key points

+ North Korea does not have an official nuclear doctrine. But this new research reveals how the country envisages using nuclear weapons in a conflict.

+ The key term to summarise North Korean doctrinal thinking is 'Preempting decapitation' – threatening to use nuclear weapons first if it detects the preparation of a preventive attack, whether conventional or nuclear, to decapitate the regime.

+ North Korea seeks to instil doubts among those who think that it would not respond to strikes against its nuclear and missile sites out of a fear of escalation and, ultimately, regime collapse.

+ Europe’s contribution should start with making a cool assessment of North Korea’s strategic thinking and understanding the regime’s logic of pre-emption. It should step up its efforts to combat sanctions evasion in countries where it has influence.

+ Europe has some limited diplomatic space to promote crisis management talks. Track 2 discussions in Europe could explore how the five main parties around North Korea would respond to various crisis scenarios. This would help foster a more unified response by the international community to North Korean proliferation activities.

Source Link Link to Main Source http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR-237-In_search_of_North_Koreas_nuclear_doctrine.pdf
Related Links
Chatham House: Expert Comment, 30.11.17: North Korea's Tight Line Between Deterrence and Escalation https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/north-koreas-tight-line-between-deterrence-and-escalation
ECFR: Commentary, 17.10.17: EU should host US-China contingency talks on North Korean nuclear crisis (et al) http://www.europeansources.info/record/eu-should-host-us-china-contingency-talks-on-north-korean-nuclear-crisis/
International Crisis Group: Asia Report, N°293, 23 January 2018: The Korean Peninsula Crisis (I): In the Line of Fire and Fury https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/korean-peninsula/293-korean-peninsula-crisis-i-line-fire-and-fury
International Crisis Group: Asia Report, No.294, 23 January 2018: The Korean Peninsula Crisis (II): From Fire and Fury to Freeze-for-Freeze https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-east-asia/korean-peninsula/294-korean-peninsula-crisis-ii-fire-and-fury-freeze-freeze
ESO: Find further information in ESO on this topic http://www.europeansources.info/advSearchLink?keyword=north%20korea%20&searchOption=all
ECFR: Commentary, 16.11.17: The real possibility of conflict with North Korea http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_real_possibility_of_conflict_with_north_korea
ESO In Focus: European reaction to nuclear test conducted by North Korea, September 2017 http://www.europeansources.info/record/european-reaction-to-nuclear-test-conducted-by-north-korea/

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