Potential migration after the first round of EU eastrn enlargement: impacts on Germany’s labour matket and welfare system

The first round of EU Eastern Enlargement occurred on May 1, 2004, with the accession of ten, mainly Central-Eastern European countries. This economic integration brings with it some potential East-West migration, to the greatest extent for Germany, but will bring benefits for some groups, while at the same time causing losses to others. This paper gives an account of some studies that estimate this migration potential and evaluate its impacts on the labour market and the welfare system in Germany. One major finding is that the numbers for migration potentials vary widely according to different models. The degree of effect depends largely on the types of labour that migrate – highly skilled or low-skilled – and which industries they find their jobs in.