Population Scenarios for South Mediterranean Countries 2010-2050

Abstract:

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and its follow-up, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM), were created in 2004 and 2008 to strengthen the prosperity, stability and security of all countries and avoid the emergence of new dividing lines between the EU and 16 neighbouring countries, including south Mediterranean countries (SMCs). Demographic factors in both EU and neighbouring countries will influence this goal. This report describes four population growth scenarios for SMCs, obtained using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework on how indicators of fertility, mortality and international migration might change if people in SMCs were to live in different macroeconomic and political contexts. Qualitative scenarios were then operationalized leading to four different quantitative scenarios using assumptions about possible trends in indicators of fertility, mortality and international migration. The paper concludes by reflecting on the results in light of recent political developments in the region.